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Searching for the Urban Fringe: Exploring Spatio-Temporal Variations in the Effect of Distance versus Local Interactions on Residential Land Conversion Using a Conditionally-Parametric Discrete-Time Duration Model

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  • Wrenn, Douglas H.
  • Sam, Abdoul G.
  • Irwin, Elena G.
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    Abstract

    The spatial configuration of land use can have a significant impact on both market and non-market outcomes. One type of land use configuration that has received considerable attention in recent decades - because of its impact on the efficiency of public service provisioning, on environmental quality and on the productivity of agricultural land - is fragmented development. Many theories have been presented to explain these fragmented development patterns including variable densities, competing land uses and heterogeneity in agents' expectations. More recently, a number of authors have hypothesized that it is the reduction in congestion and the increase in open space amenities in exurban areas that have attracted people thus creating an increase in low-density, scattered development. While many of these hypotheses have been addressed empirically, most of the work has looked at these factors separately. In addition, most of the previous work has been conducted using global parametric models, which make it difficult to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of the different factors and the resulting response. To address these shortcomings it is necessary to have micro-level data that can capture the spatio-temporal nature of the land conversion process and can separately identify the most important factors, on both sides of the market, as well as have a modeling technique that can capture the potential for spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity in the effects of the variables across space. In this paper, we fill this gap in the existing land use literature by combining several unique panel datasets of historical land use change for Carroll County, Maryland with an original nonparametric modeling technique to separately identify the heterogeneous effect of amenities, local congestion and real options prices effects on the exurban land conversion decision. The results from our model show that factors on both sides of the market matter and that these factors are not spatially stationary. We find that much of the fragmented growth pattern observed in our study region can be explained by the differential effect of local land use interactions across space. This result is particularly important for policy makers interested in protecting farmland, reducing public costs and protecting valuable ecosystem services and biodiversity.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 125007.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:125007

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    Keywords: Land-use modeling; Nonparametrics; Spatial analysis; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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    1. Jan K. Brueckner, 1990. "Growth Controls and Land Values in an Open City," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 66(3), pages 237-248.
    2. Quigley, John M. & Raphael, Steven, 2006. "Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt3hh7s35m, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    3. David A. Newburn & Peter Berck, 2006. "Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development Beyond the Urban Fringe," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(4), pages 481-499.
    4. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
    5. Walls, Margaret & McConnell, Virginia & Kopits, Elizabeth, 2005. "Zoning, TDRs, and the Density of Development," Discussion Papers dp-05-32, Resources For the Future.
    6. Mills, David E., 1981. "Growth, speculation and sprawl in a monocentric city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 201-226, September.
    7. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Land use regulation and new construction," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 639-662, December.
    8. Richard B. Peiser, 1989. "Density and Urban Sprawl," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 65(3), pages 193-204.
    9. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    10. Allen Klaiber, H. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 2010. "Valuing open space in a residential sorting model of the Twin Cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 57-77, September.
    11. Nancy Bockstael, 2008. "An Empirical Examination of the Timing of Land Conversions in the Presence of Farmland Preservation Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 613-626.
    12. Christopher R. Cunningham, 2007. "Growth Controls, Real Options, and Land Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 343-358, May.
    13. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
    14. Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill & Butsic, Van, 2009. "The dynamic effects of open-space conservation policies on residential development density," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 239-252, May.
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