Hedgers’ Participation in Futures Markets Under Varying Price Regimes
AbstractFutures markets provide an important outlet for commercial traders to hedge their price risk; in turn, hedgers‟ connections to the physical market provide a foundation of market fundamentals to the futures markets. Participation by hedgers in the futures markets is important for both entities, and is subject to many factors. In this paper, we sought to study potential changes in hedgers‟ behavior by observing the changing relationship between their futures market positions and their physical grain stocks. This changing relationship was tested using a smooth-transitioning structural model that used data from the wheat contracts on the Chicago and Kansas City exchanges. In Chicago, we find stable levels of incremental hedging that significantly decline when futures price volatility is high and when delivery basis weakens significantly. Additionally, hedging participation has declined in recent years, coinciding with the commodity price boom. In the Kansas City contracts, in contrast, hedging behavior increased with high futures prices and, surprisingly, with increased futures price volatility. Overall, we were able to observe ostensible changes in hedgers‟ market participation under changing market conditions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 124872.
Date of creation: 2012
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hedging; commodity markets; volatility; smooth-transition; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; C32;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-25 (All new papers)
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