Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change
AbstractMounting evidence indicates climate change will adversely influence agricultural crop yields and cause greater year-to-year variability. This paper considers how a rational, forward-looking and competitive commodity market would account for these anticipated changes and thereby influence time path of storage, prices, price volatility, and social welfare. We forecast 1600 hypothetical yield paths from 2000 to 2080 using estimates from a recent global statistical analysis of weather and crop yields combined with projections from 16 climate models. We then extend the dynamic competitive storage model to account for land response to price and anticipated yield shift. We simulate 1600 stochastic-equilibrium price paths under climate change relative to a baseline of stable prices using our hypothetical yield paths together with estimated demand and supply elasticities and storage cost from the literature. Our results indicate that, under the impact of climate change, world crop price level will increase twofold and world crop price volatility will increase fivefold between 2000 and 2080. Welfare analysis suggests that by 2020, the world would have welfare loss equivalent to food for 180 to 200 million people annually.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 124827.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-06-25 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2012-06-25 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices,"
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
- Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2010.
"Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate,"
NBER Working Papers
15921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-95, October.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162, April.
- Gustafson, Robert L., 1958. "Carryover levels for grains: A method for determining amounts that are optimal under specified conditions," Technical Bulletins 157231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.