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Does Rural Job Growth Lead The Economy Out Of Recession?

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  • Golub, Alla A.
  • Henderson, Jason R.
  • Foster, Kenneth A.

Abstract

This paper explores the dynamics of rural and non-rural job growth to investigate if job growth starts in rural places, making it one of the leading indicators of economic growth. Empirical results provide mixed evidence. The mixed results of the Granger non-causality tests could be sensitive to the non-rural area definition. The relationship between rural job growth and non-rural job growth is not restricted to post-recession periods. Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggests the spillover effects of non-rural growth are larger than the spillover effect of rural growth on non-rural areas. But this positive response of rural growth disappears over time and turns sharply negative. In the long run, “"backwash”" effects outweigh “"spread”" effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO with number 20066.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20066

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Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development;

References

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  1. Stephan J. Goetz & Anil Rupasingha, 2002. "High-Tech Firm Clustering: Implications for Rural Areas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1229-1236.
  2. Rupasingha, Anil & Goetz, Stephan J. & Freshwater, David, 2000. "Social Capital And Economic Growth: A County-Level Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.
  3. Jeffrey Hyde & Kenneth Foster, 2003. "Estimating Dynamic Relationships between Pork Advertising and Revenues," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 279-293.
  4. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2002. "Did The New Economy Vanquish The Regional Business Cycle?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(4), pages 456-469, October.
  5. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73.
  6. R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
  7. Steven C. Deller & Tsung-Hsiu (Sue) Tsai & David W. Marcouiller & Donald B.K. English, 2001. "The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life In Rural Economic Growth," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 352-365.
  8. Jason R. Henderson, 2002. "Will the rural economy rebound with the rest of the nation?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 65-83.
  9. Jason R. Henderson, 2002. "Will the rural economy rebound with the rest of the nation?," Main Street Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan.
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