IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aez/wpaper/2020-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing Georgia's External Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Valida Pantsulaia

    (Financial Stability Analysis and Macro-financial Modeling Division, National Bank of Georgia)

  • Salome Tvalodze

    (Sustainable Financing Division, National Bank of Georgia)

  • Zviad Zedginidze

    (Economist, International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Small open economies with persistent current account deficit and financial dollarization like Georgia are especially vulnerable to external shocks. Therefore, developing an Early Warning System can play an important role in identifying external vulnerability. How can we detect the build-up of external risks in Georgia? We take this question and employ a three-step approach to create a tool for detecting rising vulnerabilities, designed for Georgia’s economic circumstances. The first step identifies historical periods of increased external vulnerability in Georgia using the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index. The second step determines some of the best indicators that capture rising external imbalances individually. Finally, these indicators are aggregated into a single composite - External Vulnerability Index (EVI), which proves to be helpful in detecting rising external vulnerabilities in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Valida Pantsulaia & Salome Tvalodze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2020. "Assessing Georgia's External Vulnerability," NBG Working Papers 04/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    • Handle: RePEc:aez:wpaper:2020-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nbg.gov.ge/fm/wp/nbg-wp-2020-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gurnain Pasricha & Tom Roberts & Ian Christensen & Brad Howell, 2013. "Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Autumn), pages 10-19.
    2. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    3. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    2. Tristan Nguyen & Nguyen Ngoc Duy, 2017. "Developing an Early Warning System for Financial Crises in Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 413-430, April.
    3. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    4. Marcin Chlebus, 2016. "One-Day Prediction of State of Turbulence for Portfolio. Models for Binary Dependent Variable," Working Papers 2016-01, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    5. Liu, L. & Ni, Y.J, 2009. "Foreign Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Study Based on China’s Data," MPRA Paper 14491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    7. Ron Wallace, 2017. "The Signature of Risk: Agent-based Models, Boolean Networks and Economic Vulnerability," Economic Thought, World Economics Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Peter J. Stemp, 1991. "Optimal Weights in a Check‐List of Monetary Indicators," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(1), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
    10. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    11. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1986. "Des conséquences conjoncturelles de la régulation monétaire," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 963-998.
    12. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
    13. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    14. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    15. Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
    16. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    17. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 89-98, December.
    18. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Irène Andreou & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 0907, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    20. Christian Wildmann, 2011. "What drives portfolio investments of German banks in emerging capital markets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(2), pages 197-231, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external vulnerability; exchange market pressure; early warning indicators; signalling approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aez:wpaper:2020-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgi Tsutskiridze (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ngbgvge.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.