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Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gurnain Pasricha
  • Tom Roberts
  • Ian Christensen
  • Brad Howell

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurnain Pasricha & Tom Roberts & Ian Christensen & Brad Howell, 2013. "Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Autumn), pages 10-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2013:y:2013:i:autumn13:p:10-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    3. Céline Gauthier & Moez Souissi, 2012. "Understanding Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector: A MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2012(Spring), pages 29-38.
    4. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Ian Christensen & Fuchun Li, 2013. "A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events," Staff Working Papers 13-13, Bank of Canada.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    8. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Valida Pantsulaia & Salome Tvalodze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2020. "Assessing Georgia's External Vulnerability," NBG Working Papers 04/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    2. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    3. Chin-Hong Puah, & Tai-Hock Kuek, & M. Affendy Arip,, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 496-505, October.
    4. Marina Resta, 2016. "VaRSOM: A Tool to Monitor Markets' Stability Based on Value at Risk and Self‐Organizing Maps," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 47-64, January.
    5. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 89-98, December.
    6. Waelchli Boris, 2016. "A proximity based macro stress testing framework," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, November.
    7. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Alexander Lam, 2018. "Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies," Discussion Papers 18-13, Bank of Canada.
    8. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    9. Thibaut Duprey & Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities," Staff Analytical Notes 17-24, Bank of Canada.

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