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Environmental and socio-economic consequences of forest carbon payments in Bolivia: Results of the OSIRIS-Bolivia model

Author

Listed:
  • Lykke Andersen

    (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

  • Jonah Busch

    (Conservation International – Arlington, Virginia)

  • Elizabeth Curran

    (CEEMA-INESAD, San Francisco, California)

  • Juan Carlos Ledezma

    (Conservation International – Bolivia)

  • Joaquín Mayorga

    (CEEMA-INESAD, San Francisco, California)

  • Mélissa Bellier

    (University of Montesquieu Bordeaux IV, France)

Abstract

Bolivia has significant potential to abate climate change by reducing deforestation. This opportunity presents economic and environmental tradeoffs. While these tradeoffs have been hotly debated, they have as yet been the subject of little quantitative analysis. We introduce the OSIRIS-Bolivia model to provide a quantitative basis for decision-making. OSIRIS-Bolivia is an Excel-based tool for analyzing the potential effects of incentive payments to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD) in Bolivia. It is based on a spatial econometric model of deforestation in Bolivia during the period 2001-2005, and uses information on forest cover, deforestation rates, geographical conditions, and drivers of deforestation, including agricultural opportunity costs, for more than 120,000 pixels covering the whole country. OSIRIS-Bolivia is based on a partial equilibrium model in which reductions in deforestation in one region reduce the supply of agricultural products to the domestic market, which in turn causes an increase in the price of agricultural products, making conversion of land to agriculture more attractive and thus stimulating an increase in deforestation in other regions (leakage). The model can help answer questions such as: Where in Bolivia are carbon incentive payments most likely to result in reduced deforestation? Who are most likely to benefit from REDD? How much money will it take to reduce deforestation by a given amount? To what extent might transaction costs or preferences for agricultural income undermine the goals of the REDD program?

Suggested Citation

  • Lykke Andersen & Jonah Busch & Elizabeth Curran & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Joaquín Mayorga & Mélissa Bellier, 2012. "Environmental and socio-economic consequences of forest carbon payments in Bolivia: Results of the OSIRIS-Bolivia model," Development Research Working Paper Series 02/2012, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:201202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lykke Andersen & Ugur Bilge & Ben Groom & David Gutierrez & Evan Killick & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Charles Palmer & Diana Weinhold, 2014. "Modelling land use, deforestation, and policy analysis: A hybrid optimization-ABM heterogeneous agent model with application to the Bolivian Amazon," GRI Working Papers 164, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Andersen, Lykke E. & Groom, Ben & Killick, Evan & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Palmer, Charles & Weinhold, Diana, 2017. "Modelling Land Use, Deforestation, and Policy: A Hybrid Optimisation-Heterogeneous Agent Model with Application to the Bolivian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 76-90.
    3. Jonah Busch & Jens Engelmann, 2015. "The Future of Forests: Emissions from Tropical Deforestation With and Without a Carbon Price, 2016-2050," Working Papers id:7819, eSocialSciences.
    4. Jonah Busch, 2013. "Supplementing REDD+ with Biodiversity Payments: The Paradox of Paying for Multiple Ecosystem Services - Working Paper 347," Working Papers 347, Center for Global Development.
    5. Rakatama, Ari & Pandit, Ram & Ma, Chunbo & Iftekhar, Sayed, 2017. "The costs and benefits of REDD+: A review of the literature," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 103-111.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deforestation; REDD; environmental impacts; socio-economic impacts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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