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Impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de compensaciones por la reducción de emisiones de deforestación en Bolivia: resultados del modelo OSIRIS-Bolivia

Author

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  • Andersen, Lykke

    (Directora del Centro de Economía y Medioambiente (CEEMA) del Instituto de Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo (INESAD) e investigadora y docente de la Universidad Privada Boliviana (UPB).)

  • Busch, Jonah

    (Center for Global Development, Washington, DC.)

  • Curran, Elizabeth

    (CEEMA-INESAD, San Francisco, USA.)

  • Ledezma, Juan Carlos

    (Conservación Internacional – Bolivia.)

  • Mayorga, Joaquín

    (CEEMA-INESAD, La Paz, Bolivia.)

  • Ruiz, Pablo

    (University of California – San Diego, USA.)

Abstract

Bolivia tiene un gran potencial para mitigar el cambio climático a través de la reducción de la deforestación. Mientras que las posibles complicaciones han sido intensamente debatidas, se ha realizado poco análisis cuantitativo al respecto. Introducimos el modelo OSIRISBolivia, con el fin de crear una base cuantitativa para la toma de decisiones. OSIRIS-Bolivia es una herramienta en Excel capaz de analizar los efectos de los incentivos REDD en Bolivia. Esta herramienta está basada en un modelo econométrico-espacial de la deforestación en el periodo 2001-2005, y usa información sobre cobertura forestal, tasas de deforestación, condiciones geográficas, y causantes de la deforestación, así como los costos de oportunidad agrícolas, para más de 120.000 píxeles en todo el país. Se trata de un modelo de equilibrio parcial, en el sentido que toma en cuenta el hecho de que reducciones en la deforestación en un lugar causarán una reducción en la oferta de productos agrícolas, lo que a su vez hará subir los precios agrícolas y aumentará la presión para deforestar en otro lugar (fugas de carbono). El modelo nos puede ayudar a resolver preguntas como: ¿dónde es más probable que funcione REDD?, ¿cuánto dinero necesitamos para reducir la deforestación en cierto porcentaje?, ¿cuáles son los potenciales problemas de REDD?

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Lykke & Busch, Jonah & Curran, Elizabeth & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Mayorga, Joaquín & Ruiz, Pablo, 2014. "Impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de compensaciones por la reducción de emisiones de deforestación en Bolivia: resultados del modelo OSIRIS-Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 22, pages 7-48, Noviembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1919
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    1. Lykke E. Andersen & Anna Sophia Doyle & Susana del Granado & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Agnes Medinaceli & Montserrat Valdivia & Diana Weinhold, 2016. "Emisiones Netas de Carbono Provenientes de la Deforestación en Bolivia durante 1990-2000 y 2000-2010: Resultados de un modelo de “Contabilidad de Carbono”," Development Research Working Paper Series 02/2016, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deforestación; REDD; Bolivia; simulación; impactos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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