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Evaluating land-use and private forest management responses to a potential forest carbon offset sales program in western Oregon (USA)

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  • Latta, Gregory S.
  • Adams, Darius M.
  • Bell, Kathleen P.
  • Kline, Jeffrey D.

Abstract

We describe the use of linked land-use and forest sector models to simulate the effects of carbon offset sales on private forest owners' land-use and forest management decisions in western Oregon (USA). Our work focuses on forest management decisions rather than afforestation, allows full forest sector price adjustment to land-use changes, and incorporates time-dependent costs and restrictions of offset programs. The land-use model utilizes structure count data on some 21,000 plots spanning 30years. The intertemporal optimizing forest sector model employs mill-level demand and FIA plot-level inventory. Our linked simulation modeling projects that an offset sales program could reduce forest land loss to development in western Oregon by about 4700acres over the 2010–2060 simulation period for each $1 increase in the carbon price. At $10 per tonne CO2, regional private carbon stocks would be roughly stabilized at current levels over the period to 2060. Rotations would lengthen on enrolled lands, as expected, but use of planting, thinning and uneven-aged management would decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Latta, Gregory S. & Adams, Darius M. & Bell, Kathleen P. & Kline, Jeffrey D., 2016. "Evaluating land-use and private forest management responses to a potential forest carbon offset sales program in western Oregon (USA)," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:65:y:2016:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2016.01.004
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    Cited by:

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    3. Rose A Graves & Ryan D Haugo & Andrés Holz & Max Nielsen-Pincus & Aaron Jones & Bryce Kellogg & Cathy Macdonald & Kenneth Popper & Michael Schindel, 2020. "Potential greenhouse gas reductions from Natural Climate Solutions in Oregon, USA," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Kovacs, Kent F. & Haight, Robert G. & Moore, Karli & Popp, Michael, 2021. "Afforestation for carbon sequestration in the Lower Mississippi River Basin of Arkansas, USA: Does modeling of land use at fine spatial resolution reveal lower carbon cost?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Adams, Darius M. & Latta, Gregory S. & Crandall, Mindy S. & Guerrero Ochoa, Isabel G., 2019. "The importance of incorporating intertemporal and spatial log market dynamics in projections of residue-based biomass supply for liquid biofuel production in western Oregon and Washington, USA," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Miguel RIVIERE & Sylvain CAURLA, 2018. "Integrating non-timber objectives into bio-economic models of the forest sector: a review of recent innovations and current shortcomings," Working Papers of BETA 2018-26, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Graves, Rose A. & Nielsen-Pincus, Max & Haugo, Ryan D. & Holz, Andrés, 2022. "Forest carbon incentive programs for non-industrial private forests in Oregon (USA): Impacts of program design on willingness to enroll and landscape-scale program outcomes," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Kuusela, Olli-Pekka & Lintunen, Jussi, 2020. "Modeling market-level effects of disturbance risks in age structured forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Lauren Gifford, 2020. "“You can’t value what you can’t measure”: a critical look at forest carbon accounting," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 291-306, July.
    10. Rossi, David & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2023. "Carbon and Timber Management in Western Oregon under Tax-Financed Investments in Wildfire Risk Mitigation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.

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