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Impactos sociales del cambio climático en Bolivia: un análisis a nivel municipal de los efectos del cambio climático reciente sobre esperanza de vida, consumo, pobreza y desigualdad

Author

Listed:
  • Andersen, Lykke E.

    (Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD) and Universidad Privada Boliviana (UPB), La Paz, Bolivia.)

  • Verner , Dorte

    (Office of Evaluation and Oversight, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington D.C.)

Abstract

Este estudio analiza la evidencia directa del cambio climático en Bolivia durante los últimos 60 años y realiza una estimación de los efectos de estos cambios sobre la esperanza de vida y el nivel de consumo en cada uno de los 311 municipios de Bolivia. En contradicción con la mayoría de los modelos de circulación global, la evidencia directa muestra una tendencia consistente de enfriamiento de aproximadamente 0.2ºC por década en el Altiplano, evidencia esporádica de calentamiento en las tierras bajas, y ninguna tendencia sistemática en las precipitaciones. Las estimaciones indican que el enfriamiento observado de 1ºC en las áreas ya frías del Altiplano durante las últimas cinco décadas probablemente ha reducido el nivel de consumo en 2-3 por ciento en estas áreas. Dado que la población más rica de las tierras bajas se ha beneficiado levemente del cambio climático reciente, nuestras simulaciones sugieren que el cambio climático reciente ha contribuido a un aumento en la pobreza y la desigualdad en Bolivia. Los habitantes pobres e indígenas del Altiplano son los que más han sido afectados. No se ha encontrado un efecto significativo sobre la esperanza de vida.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Lykke E. & Verner , Dorte, 2014. "Impactos sociales del cambio climático en Bolivia: un análisis a nivel municipal de los efectos del cambio climático reciente sobre esperanza de vida, consumo, pobreza y desigualdad," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 22, pages 49-84, Noviembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1920
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2005. "Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 615-629, October.
    2. Andersen, Lykke E. & Suxo, Addy & Verner, Dorte, 2009. "Social impacts of climate change in Peru : a district level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5091, The World Bank.
    3. Lykke E. Andersen & Dorte Verner, 2010. "Social Impacts of Climate Change in Mexico: A municipality level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2010, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    4. Lawrence Brown & John Jones, 1985. "Spatial Variation In Migration Processes And Development: A Costa Rican Example Of Conventional Modeling Augmented By The Expansion Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(3), pages 327-352, August.
    5. Andersen, Lykke E. & Verner, Dorte, 2010. "Social impacts of climate change in Chile : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5170, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cambio climático; impactos sociales; Bolivia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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