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Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

In: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies

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  • Stijn Claessens
  • Daniel Oks
  • Rossana Polastri

Abstract

The capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU) represent a relatively small, albeit growing share of capital flows to developing countries. Taking all flows together, the total net flows to these 25 countries (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) were about $44 billion in 1996 or about 1/8 of aggregate net flows to all developing countries. These countries accounted, however, for about 20 and 22 percent respectively of all developing countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exports in 1996. As a fraction of their GDP, total inflows were consequently smaller than for many other developing countries, and averaged about 5.4 percent over the 1990-96 periods. In more recent years, there has been a more rapid inflow of private capital, as reform efforts have consolidated and economic prospects improved and, for some countries, as European Union (EU) integration became a possibility for the near future. For some countries, short-term capital has recently become an important source of external financing. Since most countries have been late comers to the phenomenon of large private capital inflows, they have not experienced much of the overheating phenomena which have affected other developing countries in the past (Latin America) and recently (East Asia). The paper is organized as follows. Section IIbriefly describes the facts on capital flows to these countries. Section III discusses important links and relationships between macroeconomic variables and the capital flows, including some of the basic motivations, and causes for capital flows. Section IV describes and analyzes the policy framework and policy responses in those countries that received the bulk of capital flows. Econometric tests are presented in

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This chapter was published in:

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa00-1.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 6171.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6171

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    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
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    5. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-49, June.
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    7. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
    8. De Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Monetary policy during transition : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1706, The World Bank.
    9. Easterly, William & da Cunha, Paulo Viera & DEC, 1994. "Financing the storm : macroeconomic crisis in Russia, 1992-93," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1240, The World Bank.
    10. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2005. "Sovereign Risk, Fdi Spillovers, And Economic Growth," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-27, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Kashif Mansori, 2003. "Following in their Footsteps: Comparing Interest Parity Conditions in Central European Economies to the Euro Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1020, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Carlos Andrés Amaya & Peter Rowland, . "Determinants of Investment Flows into Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 313, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
    6. Bos,J.W.B. & Laar,M.,van de, 2004. "Explaining Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe: an Extended Gravitiy Approach," Research Memorandum 041, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Talley, Samuel & Giugale, Marcelo M. & Polastri, Rossana, 1998. "Capital inflow reversals, banking stability, and prudential regulation in Central and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2023, The World Bank.
    8. Carlos Andrés Amaya G. & Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Investment Flows Into Emerging Markets," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002334, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Sõrg, Mart, 2007. "Estonia's high current account deficit has special reasons," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 13/2007, Ernst Moritz Arndt University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    10. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," ZEI Working Papers B 33-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.

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