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Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?

In: The Economics of Sports Betting

Author

Listed:
  • Jaume García
  • Levi Pérez
  • Plácido Rodríguez

Abstract

In this chapter the authors pose the fundamental question of whether bookmaker probabilities offer superior predictions of match outcomes to bettors themselves. Their test case is Spanish football and the comparison gamblers are football pools bettors who play a game where they forecast match outcomes. The authors find, first, that there is a favourite-longshot bias in Spanish fixed-odds football results betting and second, bookmakers’ predictions outperform those of football pools bettors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume García & Levi Pérez & Plácido Rodríguez, 2017. "Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons (ed.), The Economics of Sports Betting, chapter 5, pages 71-91, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:16946_5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2007. "The Demand for Football Pools in Spain," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(4), pages 335-354, August.
    2. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2011. "The Reverse Favorite-Longshot Bias in the National Hockey League: Do Bettors Still Score on Longshots?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 106-117, February.
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    4. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-158, January.
    5. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2000. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
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    7. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
    8. Richard H. Thaler & William T. Ziemba, 2008. "Anomalies Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Donald B Hausch & Victor SY Lo & William T Ziemba (ed.), Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 26, pages 255-268, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Dominic Cortis, 2015. "Expected Values And Variances In Bookmaker Payouts: A Theoretical Approach Towards Setting Limits On Odds," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
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    11. Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-1153, September.
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    Keywords

    Economics and Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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