News versus sunspot shocks in a New Keynesian model
AbstractSeparately, news and sunspot shocks have been shown empirically to be determinants of changes in expectations. This paper considers both of them together in a simple New Keynesian monetary business cycle model. A full set of rational expectations solutions is derived analytically. The analytical characterization allows an explicit comparison of news about future monetary policy and sunspots. The key distinction between the shocks lies in their relation to the realized policy shock. If monetary policy is 'passive', both types of shocks affect model dynamics through forecast errors. The effect of the news on forecast errors is not unique, and the dynamics induced by news and sunspot shocks can be observationally equivalent. If monetary policy is 'active', the sunspots are irrelevant, and the model responses to the news shocks are unique. In both cases, news shocks strengthen the endogenous propagation of the model, since anticipation of future changes prolongs agents' reaction. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.
Volume (Year): 4 (2010)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
News shocks; sunspots; expectations; monetary policy; indeterminacy;
Other versions of this item:
- Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "News versus sunspot shocks in a New Keynesian model," Economics Discussion Papers 2010-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001.
"An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Camilo E Tovar, 2008.
"DSGE models and central banks,"
BIS Working Papers
258, Bank for International Settlements.
- Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(16), pages 1-31.
- John H. Cochrane, 1995.
"What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
- Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
- Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002.
"Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
- Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013.
"News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges,"
NBER Working Papers
19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 9624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.