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Assessing The Risks To The Japanese Government Bond Market

Author

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  • WAIKEI RAPHAEL LAM

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • KIICHI TOKUOKA

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

Abstract

Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows in light of ongoing European debt crisis. Nonetheless, the market capacity to absorb new government debt will likely decline over time as the population ages, posing risks for the JGB market. This paper examines the key risks of the JGB market, including a decline of private sector savings and potential spillovers from global financial distress, which could push up the government bond yields. A sharp rise in interest rate could pose challenges on public debt dynamics and financial stability in Japan. In that regard, more ambitious fiscal reforms to reduce public debt will help limit these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Waikei Raphael Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2013. "Assessing The Risks To The Japanese Government Bond Market," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:04:y:2013:i:01:n:s1793993313500026
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993313500026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_962, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    5. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    6. Caravaggio, Nicola & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2022. "The Italian nominal interest rate conundrum: A problem of growth or public finance?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 313-326.
    7. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "The Empirics of UK Gilts' Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_969, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Anupam Das & Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 241-260.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; sovereign risk; government yields; financial distress; E44; E60; E62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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