IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v80y2023ics0927538x23001737.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens

Author

Listed:
  • Beirne, John
  • Sugandi, Eric

Abstract

This paper examines real and financial spillovers to safe haven financial flow destinations due to risk-off shocks in global financial markets. Using country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models over the period 1990 to 2021, we show that dynamics for Japan appear to be different to those of Switzerland and the US in three main ways. First, in response to risk-off episodes, the yen real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated significantly, with the effect persisting for around 25 days. Second, no significant effects on portfolio flows to Japan are found, in spite of the exchange rate effects, suggesting a rapid adjustment of financial markets to shifts in equilibrium exchange rates. Third, negative real spillovers from risk-off shocks appear to only apply to Japan with exchange rate appreciation exacerbating declines in GDP growth. Our findings have important implications for policymakers in safe haven destinations in managing domestic financial vulnerabilities associated with risk-off episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Beirne, John & Sugandi, Eric, 2023. "Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:80:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23001737
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X23001737
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102102?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Yuji Horioka & Takaaki Nomoto & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2013. "Why has Japan’s Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201310, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
    3. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Volz, 2020. "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 371-406, April.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:13:y:2007:i:2:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
    7. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
    9. Hossfeld, Oliver & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Carry funding and safe haven currencies: A threshold regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 185-202.
    10. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
    11. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 584-588, May.
    14. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    15. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Vessela Todorova, 2020. "Safe Haven Currencies," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 579-591, December.
    17. Waikei Raphael Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2013. "Assessing The Risks To The Japanese Government Bond Market," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-15.
    18. Hideki Nishigaki, 2007. "Relationship between the yen carry trade and the related financial variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 13(2), pages 1-7.
    19. Dekle, Robert, 1998. "The yen and Japanese manufacturing employment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 785-801, October.
    20. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    21. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
    22. Kei Imakubo & Koichiro Kamada & Kazutoshi Kan, 2015. "A new technique for estimating currency premiums," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    23. Beck, Roland & Reinhardt, Dennis & Rebillard, Cyril & Ramos-Tallada, Julio & Peeters, Jolanda & Paternò, Francesco & Wörz, Julia & Beirne, John & Weissenseel, Lisa, 2015. "The side effects of national financial sector policies: framing the debate on financial protectionism," Occasional Paper Series 166, European Central Bank.
    24. Sayuri Shirai & Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2019. "Growing Global Demand for Cash," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(12), pages 1-74, November.
    25. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "The effect of global and regional stock market shocks on safe haven assets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 297-308.
    26. Cho, Dooyeon & Han, Heejoon, 2021. "The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    27. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    28. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2019. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    29. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/228, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    31. Iwaisako, Tokuo & Nakata, Hayato, 2017. "Impact of exchange rate shocks on Japanese exports: Quantitative assessment using a structural VAR model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Tachibana, Minoru, 2018. "Safe-haven and hedge currencies for the US, UK, and Euro area stock markets: A copula-based approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 82-96.
    4. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2019. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Post-Print hal-02067096, HAL.
    5. Janani Sri S. & Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2022. "Can Equity be Safe-haven for Investment?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 32-63, March.
    6. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The risk premium of gold," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-159.
    7. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    8. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Working Papers hal-04141705, HAL.
    9. Sessi Tokpavi & Christophe Boucher, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2019. "Time-Variant Safe-Haven Currency Status and Determinants," Discussion papers 19048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Tachibana, Minoru, 2022. "Safe haven assets for international stock markets: A regime-switching factor copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2020. "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 689-746.
    13. Virginie Coudert & Cyriac Guillaumin & Hélène Raymond, 2014. "Looking at the other side of carry trades: Are there any safe haven currencies?," Working Papers hal-04141355, HAL.
    14. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2019. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Kim, Young Min & Lee, Seojin, 2023. "Spillover shifts in the FX market: Implication for the behavior of a safe haven currency," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    17. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Nader Trabelsi, 2018. "Are There Any Volatility Spill-Over Effects among Cryptocurrencies and Widely Traded Asset Classes?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond-Feingold, 2011. "Gold and financial assets: Are there any safe havens in bear markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1613-1622.
    20. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "How Debt Markets Have Malfunctioned in the Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 3-28, Winter.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk-off episodes; Safe haven assets; Economic policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:80:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23001737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.