IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/afexxx/v12y2017i03ns2010495217500117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone

Author

Listed:
  • TANWEER AKRAM

    (Thrivent Financial, USA)

  • ANUPAM DAS

    (Department of Economics, Justice, and Policy Studies, Mount Royal University, Alberta, Canada)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of nominal yields of government bonds in the euro zone. The pooled mean group (PMG) technique of cointegration is applied on both monthly and quarterly datasets to examine the major drivers of nominal yields of long-term government bonds in a set of 11 euro zone countries. Furthermore, the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) methods are used to address the same question for individual countries. The results show that short-term interest rates are the most important determinants of long-term government bonds’ nominal yields. These results support Keynes’s view that short-term interest rates and other monetary policy measures have a decisive influence on long-term interest rates on government bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:03:n:s2010495217500117
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010495217500117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010495217500117
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2010495217500117?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, S.A., 2012. "Gaps in the institutional structure of the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 217-223, April.
    2. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Scott T. Fullwiler, 2016. "The Debt Ratio and Sustainable Macroeconomic Policy," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2016(7), pages 12-42, July.
    7. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2012. "Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1563-1587, December.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. L. Randall Wray, 2015. "Modern Money Theory," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 2, number 978-1-137-53992-2.
    11. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/197, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 415-427, May.
    13. L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Understanding Modern Money," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1668.
    14. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
    15. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    16. Jan Kregel, 2011. "Was Keynes's Monetary Policy, a outrance in the Treatise, a Forerunnner of ZIRP and QE? Did He Change His Mind in the General Theory?," Economics Policy Note Archive 11-04, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Christopher A. Sims, 2013. "Paper Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 563-584, April.
    19. Tanweer Akram, 2014. "The Economics of Japan’s Stagnation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 156-175, July.
    20. Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    21. Biru Paul & Md. Uddin & Abdullah Noman, 2011. "Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(2), pages 229-242, June.
    22. Waikei Raphael Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2013. "Assessing The Risks To The Japanese Government Bond Market," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-15.
    23. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    2. Anupam Das & Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 241-260.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    3. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    5. Anupam Das & Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 241-260.
    6. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_962, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2016. "The Empirics of Long-Term US Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_863, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "The Empirics of UK Gilts' Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_969, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "The Empirics of Long-Term Mexican Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_984, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2018. "Australian Government Bonds' Nominal Yields: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_910, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2018. "The Dynamics of Japanese Government Bonds' Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_906, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2015. "Does Keynesian Theory Explain Indian Government Bond Yields?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_834, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics of Government Bond Yields in the Eurozone," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_889, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_956, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2014. "The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_818, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Caravaggio, Nicola & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2022. "The Italian nominal interest rate conundrum: A problem of growth or public finance?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 313-326.
    17. Robert S. Kravchuk, 2020. "Post‐Keynesian Public Budgeting & Finance: Assessing Contributions From Modern Monetary Theory," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 95-123, September.
    18. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    19. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi & Chan Bibi & Yannick Roussel, 2021. "The Impact of Gender Inequality and Environmental Degradation on Human Well-being in the Case of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 92-99.
    20. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:03:n:s2010495217500117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/afe/afe.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.