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An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates

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  • Tanweer Akram
  • Syed Al-Helal Uddin

Abstract

This paper empirically models the dynamics of Brazilian government bond (BGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data in the context of the evolution of Brazil’s key macroeconomic variables. The results show that the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on BGBs’ long-term interest rates after controlling for various key macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and industrial production or economic activity. These findings support John Maynard Keynes’s claim that the central bank’s actions influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds mainly through the short-term interest rate. These findings have important policy implications for Brazil. This paper relates the findings of the estimated models to ongoing debates in fiscal and monetary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_956, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_956
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazilian Government Bonds; Long-Term Interest Rate; Bond Yields; Monetary Policy; Short-Term Interest Rate; Banco Central do Brasil (BCB);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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