IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wea/worler/v2016y2016i7p12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Debt Ratio and Sustainable Macroeconomic Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Scott T. Fullwiler

    (University of Missouri-Kansas City and Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity)

Abstract

Neoclassical views on fiscal sustainability are based on several assumptions that are inconsistent with accounting and operational realities of the money system, including dangers of “bond vigilantes” in government debt markets and “printing money” is inherently inflationary. Combining these assumptions with the broader world view of monetary policy as the appropriate sole manager of the macroeconomy, neoclassicals essentially define fiscal sustainability as a policy mix in which fiscal policy “gets out of the way” of “monetary dominance”, defined as the central bank's ability to independently pursue an “optimal” monetary policy. This paper presents an alternative view consistent with real-world accounting and monetary operations; a policy mix in which fiscal policy has an active role is shown to be a more sustainable one. Perhaps surprisingly, this turns out to also not be subject to the neoclassical fears or concerns of a policy regime of fiscal dominance.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott T. Fullwiler, 2016. "The Debt Ratio and Sustainable Macroeconomic Policy," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2016(7), pages 12-42, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wea:worler:v:2016:y:2016:i:7:p:12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wer.worldeconomicsassociation.org/papers/the-debt-ratio-and-sustainable-macroeconomic-policy/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://wer.worldeconomicsassociation.org/files/WEA-WER-7-Fullwiler.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 357-371.
    2. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    3. L. Randall Wray, 1993. "Money, Interest Rates, and Monetarist Policy: Some More Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 541-569, July.
    4. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Are Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Growth Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_06, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Modern Money Theory, and Interrelations Between the Treasury and Central Bank: The Case of the United States," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 641-662.
    6. Bill Martin, 2008. "Fiscal policy in a stock-flow consistent model: a comment," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 649-668, July.
    7. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis," Reports 21625, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Eric Tymoigne, 2007. "A Hard-Nosed Look at Worsening U.S. Household Finance," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 88-111.
    9. Todd Keister & James J. McAndrews, 2009. "Why are banks holding so many excess reserves?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Dec).
    10. Congressional Budget Office, 2015. "The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 50250, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Wynne Godley & L. Randall Wray, "undated". "Can Goldilocks Survive?," Economics Policy Note Archive 99-4, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis," Reports 21625, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Understanding Modern Money," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1668.
    14. Congressional Budget Office, 2015. "The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 50250, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Jan Kregel, 2010. "Fiscal Responsibility: What Exactly Does It Mean?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_602, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Timothy P. Sharpe, 2013. "A Modern Money Perspective on Financial Crowding-out," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 586-606, October.
    17. Wynne Godley, 1999. "Seven Unsustainable Processes: Medium-Term Prospects and Policies for the United States and the World," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 99-10, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Eric Tymoigne, 2012. "Financial fragility," Chapters, in: Jan Toporowski & Jo Michell (ed.), Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, chapter 14, pages i-ii, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Stephanie Bell, 2000. "Do Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 603-620, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2017. "An Inquiry Concerning Long-term US Interest Rates Using Monthly Data," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_894, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2019. "The Impact of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy on Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_938, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics of Government Bond Yields in the Eurozone," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_889, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "The Empirics of Long-Term Mexican Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_984, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Note Concerning Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_977, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Simple Model of the Long-Term Interest Rate," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_951, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_962, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Patel, Pankaj C. & Ojha, Divesh & Naskar, Shankar, 2022. "The effect of firm efficiency on firm performance: Evidence from the Domestic Production Activities Deduction Act," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    12. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_956, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Dirk Ehnts & Michael Paetz, 2021. "Wie finanzieren wir die Corona-Schulden? [How Do We Finance the Corona Debt? Attempting a “Right” Answer to the “Wrong” Question from the Perspective of Modern Monetary Theory]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(3), pages 200-206, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2011. "Inflation and the fiscal limit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 31-47, January.
    2. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Eli Direye & Tarron Khemraj, 2022. "Central bank securities and foreign exchange market intervention in a developing economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 280-297, February.
    4. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    5. Robert S. Kravchuk, 2020. "Post‐Keynesian Public Budgeting & Finance: Assessing Contributions From Modern Monetary Theory," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 95-123, September.
    6. L. Randall Wray, 2020. "Sovereign Currency and Non‐Sovereign Budgets: The Modern Money Theory Approach," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 26-48, September.
    7. Summa, Ricardo de Figueiredo, 2022. "Alternative uses of functional finance: Lerner, MMT and the Sraffiansh," IPE Working Papers 175/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. L. Randall Wray, 2020. "The "Kansas City" Approach to Modern Money Theory," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_961, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & L. Randall Wray, 2007. "The April AMT Shock: Tax Reform Advice for the New Majority," Economics Policy Note Archive 07-1, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Stephanie Bell, 1999. "Functional Finance: What, Why, and How?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_287, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, 2008. "The Return of Fiscal Policy: Can the New Developments in the New Economic Consensus Be Reconciled with the Post-Keynesian View?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_539, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Muriel Pucci & Bruno Tinel, 2010. "Réductions d'impôts et dette publique : un lien à ne pas occulter," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10085, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Yeva Nersisyan & Flavia Dantas, 2017. "Rethinking liquidity creation: Banks, shadow banks and the elasticity of finance," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 279-299, July.
    15. Rainer Masera, 2011. "Taking the moral hazard out of banking: the next fundamental step in financial reform," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(257), pages 105-142.
    16. Zdravka Todorova, 2013. "Connecting social provisioning and functional finance in a post-Keynesian–Institutional analysis of the public sector," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 61-75.
    17. L. Randall Wray, 2008. "Banking, Finance and Money: A Social Economics Approach," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & Wilfred Dolfsma (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Social Economics, chapter 27, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Martin Feldstein, 2011. "Preventing a National Debt Explosion," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 109-144.
    19. Ehnts, Dirk H., 2020. "The fiscal-monetary nexus in Germany," IPE Working Papers 138/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    20. L. Randall Wray, 2011. "The Dismal State of Macroeconomics and the Opportunity for a New Beginning," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wea:worler:v:2016:y:2016:i:7:p:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake McMurchie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/worecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.