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The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time‐Series Evidence

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  • Tony Caporale
  • Barbara McKiernan

Abstract

We estimate an ARCH‐M model to analyze the relationship between the conditional standard deviation of real gross national product (GNP) and its growth rate for the period 1871‐1993. We find that variability significantly increases output growth rates. In addition, impulse response functions show that the effect of variability on growth rates is dynamic. These results provide evidence in favor of Black's (1987) business cycle hypothesis.

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  • Tony Caporale & Barbara McKiernan, 1998. "The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time‐Series Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 765-771, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:64:y:1998:i:3:p:765-771
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.1998.tb00093.x
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    3. Wen‐Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
    4. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    5. Matthew Rafferty, 2005. "The Effects of Expected and Unexpected Volatility on Long‐Run Growth: Evidence from 18 Developed Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 582-591, January.
    6. Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2022. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties: some multivariate GARCH-M evidence for Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 197-210, June.
    7. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2018. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 390-413, September.

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