IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v52y2020i6p1397-1433.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Liquidity‐Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • SEUNGDUCK LEE
  • KUK MO JUNG

Abstract

A new monetary theory is set out to resolve the “uncovered interest parity (UIP)” puzzle. It explores the possibility that liquidity properties of money and nominal bonds can account for the puzzle. A key concept in our model is that nominal bonds carry liquidity premia. We show that the UIP can fail to hold under the economic environment where collateral pledgeability and/or liquidity of nominal bonds and/or collateralized credit‐based transactions are relatively bigger. Our liquidity‐based theory can help understanding many empirical observations that risk‐based explanations find difficult to reconcile with.

Suggested Citation

  • Seungduck Lee & Kuk Mo Jung, 2020. "A Liquidity‐Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1397-1433, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:6:p:1397-1433
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12663
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12663
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12663?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    3. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2005. "Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 175-202, January.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
    6. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    7. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    8. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    9. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-9.
    10. Ricardo Lagos, 2011. "Asset Prices, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy in an Exchange Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s2), pages 521-552, October.
    11. Wallace, Neil, 2010. "The Mechanism-Design Approach to Monetary Theory," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 1, pages 3-23, Elsevier.
    12. Lagos, Ricardo & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2008. "Money and capital as competing media of exchange," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 247-258, September.
    13. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2016. "International reserves for emerging economies: A liquidity approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 230-257.
    14. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    15. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung, 2019. "Monetary policy and efficiency in over-the-counter financial trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1699-1754, November.
    16. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Liquidity premia and interest rate parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 178-192.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    18. Berentsen, Aleksander & Waller, Christopher, 2011. "Outside versus inside bonds: A ModiglianiâMiller type result for liquidity constrained economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 1852-1887, September.
    19. Tai-Wei Hu, 2013. "Imperfect recognizability and coexistence of money and higher-return assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(1), pages 111-138, May.
    20. Tai‐Wei Hu & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Mechanism Design Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 39-76, June.
    21. Nosal, Ed & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2013. "Pairwise trade, asset prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-17.
    22. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    23. Shengxing Zhang & Ricardo Lagos, 2013. "A Model of Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets," 2013 Meeting Papers 1242, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Lagos, Ricardo, 2010. "Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 913-930, November.
    25. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-154, July.
    26. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Timothy Kam & Christopher Waller, 2017. "Nominal Exchange Rate Determinacy under the Threat of Currency Counterfeiting," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 256-273, April.
    27. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
    28. Jacquet, Nicolas L. & Tan, Serene, 2012. "Money and asset prices with uninsurable risks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 784-797.
    29. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
    30. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall & Xiaolin Xiao, Sylvia, 2018. "Open market operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 114-128.
    31. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    32. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    33. Stephen D. Williamson, 2012. "Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and the Financial Crisis: A New Monetarist Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2570-2605, October.
    34. Zhang, Cathy, 2014. "An information-based theory of international currency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 286-301.
    35. Hu, Tai-Wei & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2013. "On the coexistence of money and higher-return assets and its social role," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2520-2560.
    36. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    37. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    38. Ping He & Lixin Huang & Randall Wright, 2005. "Money And Banking In Search Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 637-670, May.
    39. Nosal, Ed & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2011. "Money, Payments, and Liquidity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016281, December.
    40. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Rodriguez‐Lopez, 2021. "Liquidity and the International Allocation of Economic Activity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 789-830, May.
    2. Lucas Herrenbrueck, Zijian Wang, 2023. "Interest Rates, Moneyness, and the Fisher Equation," Discussion Papers dp23-11, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    3. Wang, Chenxi, 2023. "A model of international currency with private information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seungduck Lee & Kuk Mo Jung, 2019. "A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 1902, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    2. Jung, Kuk Mo & Lee, Seungduck, 2015. "A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," MPRA Paper 64164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 1-36, July.
    4. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2017. "On the optimal quantity of liquid bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-200.
    5. Lukas Altermatt & Kohei Iwasaki & Randall Wright, 2023. "General Equilibrium with Multiple Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 267-291, December.
    6. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    7. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Liquidity in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 35-79, February.
    8. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas M. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2016. "A search-theoretic model of the term premium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), September.
    9. Altermatt, Lukas & Iwasaki, Kohei & Wright, Randall, 2021. "Asset pricing in monetary economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Tai‐Wei Hu & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Mechanism Design Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 39-76, June.
    11. Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2014. "Quantitative Easing and the Liquidity Channel of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 70686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2016.
    12. Seungduck Lee, 2020. "Money, Asset Prices, and the Liquidity Premium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1435-1466, September.
    13. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2016. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," MPRA Paper 71454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    15. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall, 2013. "Liquidity and asset-market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 275-294.
    16. Athanasios Geromichalos & Jiwon Lee & Seungduck Lee & Keita Oikawa, 2016. "Over-the-counter trade and the value of assets as collateral," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 443-475, August.
    17. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright & Cathy Zhang, 2018. "Corporate Finance and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 1147-1186, April.
    18. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall & Xiaolin Xiao, Sylvia, 2018. "Open market operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 114-128.
    19. Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Randall Wright, 2016. "Money and Credit Redux," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1-32, January.
    20. Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2019. "Frictional asset markets and the liquidity channel of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 82-120.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:6:p:1397-1433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.