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The Asymmetric Commodity Inventory Effect on the Optimal Hedge Ratio

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  • Jean‐Francois Carpantier
  • Besik Samkharadze

Abstract

Hedging strategies for commodity prices largely rely on dynamic models to compute optimal hedge ratios. This paper illustrates the importance of considering the commodity inventory effect (effect by which the commodity price volatility increases more after a positive shock than after a negative shock of the same magnitude) in modelling the variance-covariance dynamics. We show by in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts that a commodity price index portfolio optimized by an asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model outperforms the symmetric BEKK, static (OLS) or naïve models. Robustness checks on a set of commodities and by an alternative mean-variance optimization framework confirm the relevance of taking into account the inventory effect in commodity hedging strategies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Futures Markets.

Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): 9 (09)
Pages: 868-888

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Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:33:y:2013:i:9:p:868-888

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  1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  2. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-198, February.
  3. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-30, April.
  4. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  5. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D.
  6. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
  7. Jean-François Carpantier & Arnaud Dufays, 2013. "Commodities Inventory Effect," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-07, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  8. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  9. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse & Albert Tsui, 2002. "Evaluating the hedging performance of the constant-correlation GARCH model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 791-798.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  11. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
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