IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ajagec/v104y2022i5p1605-1624.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Characterizing implied volatility functions from agricultural options markets

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew M. McKenzie
  • Michael R. Thomsen
  • Michael K. Adjemian

Abstract

We provide the first comprehensive characterization and comparison of implied volatility functions for five major agricultural options markets—corn, soybeans, soft red winter wheat, live cattle, and feeder cattle—using intraday tick data. Our results show that cattle markets exhibit a distinct leftward skew, which is puzzling and indicates that out‐of‐the‐money traded put options are theoretically overpriced. In contrast, we find that grain market implied volatility functions display a flatter, less pronounced smile pattern. We examine market sentiment induced short‐term hedging pressures using Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports, and market uncertainty around Cattle on Feed reports, as potential causes of the cattle markets skew. However, our results show that the explanatory power of our short‐term hedging pressure proxies are only helpful in isolated cases but overall cannot explain the large skews we observe in cattle markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. McKenzie & Michael R. Thomsen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2022. "Characterizing implied volatility functions from agricultural options markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1605-1624, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:5:p:1605-1624
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12288
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ajae.12288?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Triantafyllou & George Dotsis & Alexandros Sarris, 2020. "Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 631-651, September.
    2. An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022. "Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
    3. Levan Elbakidze & Linda Highfield & Michael Ward & Bruce A. McCarl & Bo Norby, 2009. "Economics Analysis of Mitigation Strategies for FMD Introduction in Highly Concentrated Animal Feeding Regions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 931-950.
    4. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2021. "The 2019 government shutdown increased uncertainty in major agricultural commodity markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2011. "Pricing Options on Commodity Futures: The Role of Weather and Storage," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103638, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Ronald W. Anderson, 1985. "Some determinants of the volatility of futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 331-348, September.
    7. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
    8. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Purcell, Wayne D., 1984. "The Impact Of Hog And Pig Reports On Live Hog Futures Prices: An Event Study Of Market Efficiency," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Thomas L. Mann & Richard J. Dowen, 1996. "Are hog and pig reports informative?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 273-287, May.
    10. Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen & Josh Phelan, 2007. "How do you straddle hogs and pigs? Ask the Greeks!," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 511-520.
    11. Orlen Grunewald & Mark S. McNulty & Arlo W. Biere, 1993. "Live Cattle Futures Response to Cattle on Feed Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 131-137.
    12. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
    13. Steen Koekebakker & Gudbrand Lien, 2004. "Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1018-1031.
    14. Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1998. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2059-2106, December.
    15. Shah, Samarth & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2012. "Effective Bid-Ask Spreads in Futures versus Futures Options," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1-14.
    16. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    17. Irwin, Scott H. & Pelly, Robert A. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1989. "An Investigation of Pricing Models for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Options," Staff Papers 232393, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    18. Bing Han, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 387-414, January.
    19. Matthew P. Schaefer & Robert J. Myers & Stephen R. Koontz, 2004. "Rational expectations and market efficiency in the U.S. live cattle futures market: The role of proprietary information," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 429-451, May.
    20. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nappo, Giovanna & Marchetti, Fabio Massimo & Vagnani, Gianluca, 2023. "Traders’ heterogeneous beliefs about stock volatility and the implied volatility skew in financial options markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Analogy Making, Option Prices, and Implied Volatility," MPRA Paper 48862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    5. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Radu Tunaru, 2022. "Asymmetric Network Connectedness of Fears," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1304-1316, November.
    6. Elyas Elyasiani & Silvia Muzzioli & Alessio Ruggieri, 2016. "Forecasting and pricing powers of option-implied tree models: Tranquil and volatile market conditions," Department of Economics 0099, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    7. Benzoni, Luca & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S., 2011. "Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 552-573, September.
    8. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.
    9. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Analogy Making in Complete and incomplete Markets: A New Model for Pricing Contingent Claims," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 160608, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    10. Michael K Adjemian & Robert Johansson & Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen, 2018. "Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 653-671, December.
    11. Kapetanios, George & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Neumann, Michael & Skiadopoulos, George, 2019. "Jumps in option prices and their determinants: Real-time evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    12. Ulze, Markus & Stadler, Johannes & Rathgeber, Andreas W., 2021. "No country for old distributions? On the comparison of implied option parameters between the Brownian motion and variance gamma process," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-184.
    13. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2014. "Analogy Making and the Puzzles of Index Option Returns and Implied Volatility Skew: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 177302, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    14. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Mental Accounting: A Closed-Form Alternative to the Black Scholes Model," MPRA Paper 50759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Analogy Making In Complete and Incomplete Markets: A New Model for Pricing Contingent Claims," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 156934, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    16. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: Extracting what has been left," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Liu, Qing & Wang, Shouyang & Sui, Cong, 2023. "Risk appetite and option prices: Evidence from the Chinese SSE50 options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin & Nicolas Martelin, 2013. "Stein s Overreaction Puzzle: Option Anomaly or Perfectly Rational Behavior?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-11, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    19. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2014. "Analogy Making and the Structure of Implied Volatility Skew," MPRA Paper 60921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shih-Ping Feng & Bi-Juan Chang, 2020. "Limits Of Arbitrage, Risk-Neutral Skewness, And Investor Sentiment," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 14(2), pages 61-71.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:5:p:1605-1624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8276 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.