IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/vtaesp/232393.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Investigation of Pricing Models for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Options

Author

Listed:
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Pelly, Robert A.
  • Zulauf, Carl R.

Abstract

This study investigated the performance of Black's European model and Barone-Adesi and Whaley ' s American model in pricing live cattle and feeder cattle futures options. One historical and three implied volatility estimators were employed. The live cattle sample period was October 31 , 1984 through September 30, 1988. The feeder cattle sample period was January 4, 1988 through September 30, 1988. One observation per day was collected for all put and call contracts and all strike prices. Contemporaneous futures prices were collected to match the put and call observation~ Black ' s European model was as accurate in predicting premiums as Barone-Adesi and Whaley ' s American model across all volatility estimates and opt ion contracts. Implied volatility estimates generated substantially more accurate forecasts of actual option premia than historical volatility. Small differences were found in the predictive ability among the three implied volatility estimates . The significance and signs of the coefficients and explanatory power of the bias regressions were generally consistent across both option pricing models , suggesting that little difference in biases existed between the American and European model. Generally, fewer coefficients were significant in the implied volatility equations compared to the historical volatility equations. In addition, the magnitude of bias associated with variables in the implied volatility equations was substantially less than that of variables in historical volatility equations. Finally, it was found that none of the variables input into the option pricing models (time-to-maturity , moneyness , volatility, and the riskless interest rate) displayed consistent, significant coefficients across markets and option type.

Suggested Citation

  • Irwin, Scott H. & Pelly, Robert A. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1989. "An Investigation of Pricing Models for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Options," Staff Papers 232393, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:vtaesp:232393
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.232393
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/232393/files/agecon-vt-89-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.232393?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Day, Theodore E. & Lewis, Craig M., 1988. "The behavior of the volatility implicit in the prices of stock index options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 103-122, October.
    2. A. James Boness, 1964. "Elements of a Theory of Stock-Option Value," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 163-163.
    3. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    4. Beckers, Stan, 1983. "Variances of Security Price Returns Based on High, Low, and Closing Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 97-112, January.
    5. Bookstaber, Richard M, 1981. "Observed Option Mispricing and the Nonsimultaneity of Stock and Option Quotations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 141-155, January.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    7. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    8. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew M. McKenzie & Michael R. Thomsen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2022. "Characterizing implied volatility functions from agricultural options markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1605-1624, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94.
    4. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    5. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Eric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
    6. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    7. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1990. "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270920, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "Der Informationsgehalt von Derivaten für die Geldpolitik: Implizite Volatilitäten und Wahrscheinlichkeiten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E., 2000. "Market risk and the concept of fundamental volatility: Measuring volatility across asset and derivative markets and testing for the impact of derivatives markets on financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 759-785, May.
    10. Ncube, Mthuli, 1996. "Modelling implied volatility with OLS and panel data models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-84, January.
    11. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Michael J. O'Neill & Tom Smith, 2017. "State-preference pricing and volatility indices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 815-836, September.
    13. Brown, C. A. & Taylor, S. D., 1997. "A test of the Asay model for pricing options on the SPI futures contract," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 579-594, December.
    14. Christiansen, Charlotte & Strunk Hansen, Charlotte, 2000. "Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model," Finance Working Papers 00-1, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    15. Pilar Corredor-Casado & Rafael Santamaría-Aquilué, 2000. "La estructura temporal de las volatilidades implícitas en la opción sobre el IBEX-35," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(2), pages 385-417, May.
    16. Ben Hunt, 1991. "A Forecasting Model of Option Pricing Volatility," Working Paper Series 10, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Guan Wang & Pierre Yourougou & Yue Wang, 2012. "Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 93-105, January.
    18. Fackler, Paul L. & King, Robert P., 1987. "The Evaluation of Probability Distributions with Special Emphasis on Price Distributions Derived from Option Premiums," Regional Research Projects > 1987: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 22-25, 1987, San Antonio, Texas 272343, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    19. Smith, Paul & Gronewoller, Paul & Rose, Lawrence C., 1998. "Pricing efficiency on the New Zealand Futures and Options Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62, January.
    20. William Pedersen, 1998. "Capturing all the information in foreign currency option prices: solving for one versus two implied variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1679-1683.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:vtaesp:232393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/daavtus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.