This paper examines a single, narrow decision—the choice on fourth down in the National Football League between kicking and trying for a first down—as a case study of the standard view that competition in the goods, capital, and labor markets leads firms to make maximizing choices. Play-by-play data and dynamic programming are used to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and trying for a first down under different circumstances. Examination of actual decisions shows systematic, clear-cut, and overwhelmingly statistically significant departures from the decisions that would maximize teams' chances of winning. Possible reasons for the departures are considered.
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Volume (Year): 114 (2006) Issue (Month): 2 (April) Pages: 317-339 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Schmitz, Patrick W. & Tröger, Thomas, 2006.
"Garbled Elections,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Patrick W. Schmitz & Thomas Tröger, 2006.
"Garbled Elections,"
Discussion Papers
195, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
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