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The Economic Epidemiology of Crime

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Author Info
Philipson, Tomas J
Posner, Richard A

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Abstract

Economic analysis of infectious diseases emphasizes the self-correcting character of epidemics, as rising risk of infection causes potential victims to take self-protective measures. We apply the analysis to crime, showing how rational potential victims of crime will take increased self-protective measures in response to rising crime rates, causing those rates to moderate. Victim responses to crime can offset public expenditures on crime control; this implies that there may be a "natural" rate of crime that is difficult for the public sector to affect. We show that victim responses to crime can impart a cyclical pattern to crime rates and discuss the implications of our analysis for gun control and present empirical evidence concerning the responsiveness of self-protective measures to crime rates and the cyclical pattern of those rates. Copyright 1996 by the University of Chicago.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Law & Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 405-33
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:v:39:y:1996:i:2:p:405-33

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  1. Michael D. Makowsky, 2005. "An Agent-Based Model of Mortality Shocks, Intergenerational Effects, and Urban Crime," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 91, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Is there a Natural Rate of Crime?," Monash Economics Working Papers 18/05, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tomas Philipson, 1999. "Economic Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases," NBER Working Papers 7037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ben Vollaard & Pierre Koning, 2005. "Estimating police effectiveness with individual victimisation data," CPB Discussion Papers 47, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ann Dryden Witte & Robert Witt, 2001. "What We Spend and What We Get: Public and Private Provision of Crime Prevention," NBER Working Papers 8204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Li Gan & Roberton C. Williams III & Thomas Wiseman, 2004. "A Simple Model of Optimal Hate Crime Legislation," NBER Working Papers 10463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ian Ayres & Steven D. Levitt, 1997. "Measuring Positive Externalities from Unobservable Victim Precaution: An Empirical Analysis of Lojack," NBER Working Papers 5928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Menno Pradhan & Martin Ravallion, 2001. "Who wants Safer Streets? Explaining Concern for Public Safety in Brazil," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-093/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pradhan, Menno & Ravallion, Martin, 1999. "Demand for public safety," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2043, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. David A. Weiner & Byron F. Lutz & Jens Ludwig, 2009. "The Effects of School Desegregation on Crime," NBER Working Papers 15380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Philip J. Cook, 2008. "Assessing Urban Crime And Its Control: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 13781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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