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How Accurate Are Surveyed Preferences for Public Policies? Evidence from a Unique Institutional Setup

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  • Patricia Funk

    (Università della Svizzera Italiana and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Abstract

Opinion polls and other surveys are used to capture public sentiments on a variety of issues. If citizens are unwilling to reveal certain policy preferences to others, surveys may fail to characterize population preferences accurately. The innovation of this paper is to use unique data that allow one to measure biases in surveyed preferences for a broad range of public policies. I combine data on 184 referenda held in Switzerland between 1987 and 2007 with postballot surveys that ask how the citizens voted for each proposal. The difference between stated preferences in the survey and revealed preferences at the ballot box provides a direct measure of survey bias. I find that these biases vary by policy area, with the largest occurring in policies on immigration, international integration, and votes involving liberal or conservative attitudes. Also, citizens show a tendency to respond in accordance with the majority.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Funk, 2016. "How Accurate Are Surveyed Preferences for Public Policies? Evidence from a Unique Institutional Setup," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 442-454, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:98:y:2016:i:3:p:442-454
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    Cited by:

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    2. A. Fronzetti Colladon & F. Grippa & B. Guardabascio & G. Costante & F. Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting consumer confidence through semantic network analysis of online news," Papers 2105.04900, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    3. Arruñada, Benito, 2020. "The impact of experience on how we perceive the rule of law," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 251-269, June.
    4. Francisco Pino, 2014. "Is There Gender Bias Among Voters ?Evidence from the Chilean Congressional Elections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-53, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Barrera, Oscar & Bensidoun, Isabelle & Edo, Anthony, 2022. "Second-Generation Immigrants and Native Attitudes Toward Immigrants in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 15393, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Galletta, Sergio, 2021. "Form of government and voters’ preferences for public spending," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 548-561.
    7. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Maennig, Wolfgang & Mueller, Steffen Q., 2022. "The generation gap in direct democracy: Age vs. cohort effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Hessami, Zohal & Resnjanskij, Sven, 2019. "Complex ballot propositions, individual voting behavior, and status quo bias," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 82-101.
    9. Anja Roth & Michaela Slotwinski, 2018. "Gender Norms and Income Misreporting within Households," CESifo Working Paper Series 7298, CESifo.
    10. Esther Hauk & Javier Ortega, 2022. "Political Correctness and Elite Prestige," Working Papers 1375, Barcelona School of Economics.
    11. Zimmermann, Severin & Stutzer, Alois, 2022. "The consequences of hosting asylum seekers for citizens’ policy preferences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Adriel Jost, 2018. "Cultural Differences in Monetary Policy Preferences," Working Papers 2018-02, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano & Laura Metzger, 2023. "Welfare losses, preferences for redistribution, and political participation: Evidence from the United Kingdom's age of austerity," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Aronsson, Thomas & Hetschko, Clemens & Schöb, Ronnie, 2020. "Globalization, Time-Preferences, and Populist Voting," Umeå Economic Studies 978, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    15. Oscar Barrera & Isabelle Bensidoun & Anthony Edo, 2022. "Second-generation immigrants and native attitudes toward immigrants in Europe," Working Papers 2022-03, CEPII research center.
    16. Kevin Denny & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2016. "Immigration, Asylum, and Gender: Ireland and Beyond," Working Papers 201604, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Aronsson, Thomas & Hetschko, Clemens & Schöb, Ronnie, 2023. "Populism and Impatience," Umeå Economic Studies 1019, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey Accuracy; Opinion Polls; Preference Falsification; Direct Democracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • Z - Other Special Topics

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