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The Subprime Crisis: Is Government Housing Policy to Blame?

Author

Listed:
  • Robert B. Avery

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  • Kenneth P. Brevoort

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Abstract

Some have suggested that housing policy, embodied by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and affordable housing goals of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), caused the subprime crisis. We examine if these programs led to worse mortgage outcomes using two approaches. The first examines whether more activity by CRA-covered lenders, or more loan sales to the GSEs, was associated with worse outcomes. The second uses regression discontinuity to determine if outcomes were worse at the geographic thresholds used by each program. Our results suggest that neither program played a significant role in the subprime crisis. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort, 2015. "The Subprime Crisis: Is Government Housing Policy to Blame?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 352-363, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:97:y:2015:i:2:p:352-363
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter J. Wallison, 2011. "Dissent from the Majority Report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 50848, September.
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    7. Robert Avery & Raphael Bostic & Glenn Canner, 2005. "Assessing the necessity and efficiency of the community reinvestment act," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 143-172.
    8. Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2007. "Opportunities and Issues in Using HMDA Data," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 351-380.
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    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis Avramidis & George Pennacchi & Konstantinos Serfes & Kejia Wu, 2022. "The Role of Regulation and Bank Competition in Small Firm Financing: Evidence from the Community Reinvestment Act," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2301-2340, December.
    2. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2018. "Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 243-257.
    3. Lei Ding & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2017. "“Don't Know What You Got Till It’s Gone” — The Effects of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) on Mortgage Lending in the Philadelphia Market," Working Papers 17-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Kim, Mee Jung & Lee, Kyung Min & Earle, John S., 2021. "Does the Community Reinvestment Act increase lending to small businesses in lower income neighborhoods?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    6. Fout, Hamilton & Li, Grace & Palim, Mark & Pan, Ying, 2020. "Credit risk of low income mortgages," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Daniel Ringo, 2023. "Mortgage Lending, Default, and the Community Reinvestment Act," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 77-102, February.
    8. Susan Wachter, 2015. "Housing America: The Unequal Geography of Risk and Opportunity," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 813-816, October.
    9. Kim, Mee Jung & Lee, Kyung Min & Earle, John S., 2021. "Does the Community Reinvestment Act Increase Small Business Lending in Lower Income Neighborhoods?," IZA Discussion Papers 14681, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Jacob Conway & Jack Glaser & Matthew Plosser, 2023. "Does the Community Reinvestment Act Improve Consumers’ Access to Credit," Staff Reports 1048, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Daniel R. Ringo, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2017. "Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 111-125.
    13. Laura Blattner & Scott Nelson, 2021. "How Costly is Noise? Data and Disparities in Consumer Credit," Papers 2105.07554, arXiv.org.
    14. Olsen, Edgar O. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2015. "US Housing Policy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 887-986, Elsevier.
    15. Lee, Hyojung & Bostic, Raphael W., 2020. "Bank adaptation to neighborhood change: Mortgage lending and the Community Reinvestment Act," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    16. Mee Jung Kim & Kyung Min Lee & J. David Brown & John S. Earle, 2021. "Black Entrepreneurs, Job Creation, and Financial Constraints," Working Papers 21-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    17. Kim, Mee Jung, 2023. "Impact of the Community Reinvestment Act on small business employment in lower income neighborhoods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Rojas, Alejandro, 2021. "Mortgage credit growth for lower-income borrowers during the 2000s housing boom: Evidence and implications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 220-233.
    19. Christopher L. Foote & Lara Loewenstein & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Technological Innovation in Mortgage Underwriting and the Growth in Credit: 1985-2015," Working Papers (Old Series) 1816, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2013. "Study of U.S. Financial System," FESSUD studies fstudy10, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    21. Kenneth P. Brevoort, 2022. "Does Giving CRA Credit for Loan Purchases Increase Mortgage Credit in Low-to-Moderate Income Communities?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Egle Jakucionyte & Swapnil Singh, 2019. "Mortgage Foreclosure Risk After the Great Recession," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 69, Bank of Lithuania.
    23. Daniel R. Ringo, 2020. ""Revitalize or Stabilize": Does Community Development Financing Work?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Levitin, Adam & Wachter, Susan, 2012. "Explaining the Housing Bubble," MPRA Paper 41920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Neil Bhutta, 2014. "The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-91, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing policy; Community Reinvestment Act; CRA; affordable housing; GSE; subprime; regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General

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