IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/asiaec/v17y2018i3p148-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainable Development and Currency Exchange Rate Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Ariff

    (Department of Economics and Finance Sunway University 47500 Bandar Sunway Selangor, Malaysia Author email: ariff13@gmail.com)

  • Alireza Zarei

    (Economics and Finance Sunway University 47500 Bandar Sunway Selangor, Malaysia alirezaz@sunway.edu.my Author email: alirezaz@sunway.edu.my)

Abstract

We discuss currency volatility as a measure of currency instability using 15 currencies from developed and emerging economies. The IMF and others have recorded how countries manage their exchange rates to promote sustainable economic growth by designing exchange rate regimes as a pillar within economic policy. The findings herein show how to track currency instability using a given currency's volatility against the volatility of a benchmark currency of importance to the given currency. This is termed relative volatility. The study proceeds to test whether the parity factors and country risk factor are significantly correlated with exchange rate relative volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ariff & Alireza Zarei, 2018. "Sustainable Development and Currency Exchange Rate Behavior," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(3), pages 148-173, Fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:17:y:2018:i:3:p:148-173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/asep_a_00644
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 511-535, December.
    5. M. Ariff & Vijaya B. Marisetty, 2012. "Panel data approach to identify factors correlated with equity market risk premiums in developed and emerging markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 107-118, April.
    6. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    9. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
    10. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Is the relationship between prices and exchange rates homogeneous?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 411-438.
    11. Mohamed Ariff & Luc Can, 2009. "IMF Bank-Restructuring Efficiency Outcomes: Evidence from East Asia," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 167-187, April.
    12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Edison, Hali J, 1987. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Test of the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate (1890-1978)," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 376-387, August.
    15. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April.
    16. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    17. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
    18. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Simos, Theodore, 2013. "Testing purchasing power parity for Japan and the US: A structural-break approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 53-59.
    19. M. Ariff & A. Zarei, 2016. "Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 341-357, April.
    20. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    21. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
    22. Il Houng Lee & Kyunghun Kim, 2018. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness, and Economic Growth," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 145-162, Winter/Sp.
    23. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Yoko Ibuka, 2003. "The Stabilization of an Open Economy with Capital Controls: An Analysis Using Malaysian Data," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 63-83.
    24. Chalongphob Sussangkarn, 2017. "Managing Economic Stability under Volatile Capital Flows: East Asia Perspectives," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 174-192, Winter/Sp.
    25. Adrian W. Throop, 1993. "A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    26. Ho, Catherine S.F. & Ariff, M., 2012. "Time to equilibrium in exchange rates: G-10 and Eastern European economies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 94-107.
    27. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Na Wang & Atta Ullah & Xiaofeng Lin & Taiming Zhang & Jie Mao, 2022. "Dynamic Influence of Urbanization on Inclusive Green Growth in Belt and Road Countries: The Moderating Role of Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Charles Harvie & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2019. "Money Demand in a Dollarized Economy: Evidence from Laos PDR," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-115, Winter/Sp.
    3. Ariff, Mohamed & Zarei, Alireza & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2021. "Monitoring exchange rate instability in 12 selected Islamic economies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ariff, Mohamed & Zarei, Alireza & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2021. "Monitoring exchange rate instability in 12 selected Islamic economies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    2. M. Ariff & A. Zarei, 2016. "Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 341-357, April.
    3. Cushman, David O. & Michael, Nils, 2011. "Nonlinear trends in real exchange rates: A panel unit root test approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1619-1637.
    4. Lambelet, Jean-Christian & Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 8896, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND-GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 133-150, April.
    6. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Marcel Kohler, 2016. "On the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from Energy Exporting Sub-Saharan Africa Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 71-82, July-Sept.
    7. Mohamed Ariff & Alireza Zarei, 2018. "One Approach To Resolve The Exchange Rate Puzzle: Results Using Data From The United Kingdom And The United States," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1367-1384, December.
    8. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pepin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2014. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING OLD AND NEW GENERATIONS OF PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Working Papers hal-00959475, HAL.
    9. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    10. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 246-267, February.
    11. Chan, Tze-Haw & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2012. "Financial Integration between China and Asia Pacific Trading Partners: Parities Evidence from the First- and Second-generation Panel Tests," MPRA Paper 37801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    13. Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Meng-Nan Zhu & Pei Liu, 2011. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity for Central and Eastern European countries: nonlinear panel unit root tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 411-415.
    14. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    15. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.
    16. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Tony K. Moore, 2017. "Did Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Medieval Europe?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(6), pages 682-709, December.
    17. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    18. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christoph Hanck, 2010. "Are PPP tests erratically behaved? Some panel evidence," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 203-221.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Shu-Ching Cheng & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2015. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in major oil-exporting countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 108-116, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:17:y:2018:i:3:p:148-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.