IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jpropr/v35y2018i1p28-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of macro-economic indicators in explaining direct commercial real estate returns: evidence from South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Omokolade Akinsomi
  • Nikiwe Mkhabela
  • Marimo Taderera

Abstract

This study investigates the role of macro-economic indicators in explaining direct real estate returns in South Africa (SA). Literature review is conducted to identify factors that drive direct commercial real returns and the identified drivers are tested in an emerging market. The study applies SA annual commercial real estate returns including total returns, rental growth and capital growth published by the Investment Property Databank (IPD) over the past 20 years, from 1995 to 2014, as an independent variable. The most dominant and significant factors that explain total returns across all property types and provinces in South Africa are GDP, unemployment rates and interest rates which are macro-economic indicators. Our study finds key differences between the determinants of total return and change in capital values which are different from the variables which determine rental growth – the results also highlight the heterogeneity and complexity of real estate returns. These results are important for asset managers as well as government regulatory agencies to make better informed decisions in relation to factors which affect direct real estate returns in an emerging economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Omokolade Akinsomi & Nikiwe Mkhabela & Marimo Taderera, 2018. "The role of macro-economic indicators in explaining direct commercial real estate returns: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 28-52, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:35:y:2018:i:1:p:28-52
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2017.1402071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09599916.2017.1402071
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09599916.2017.1402071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradford Case & William Goetzmann & K. Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Global Real Estate Markets: Cycles And Fundamentals," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm20, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2001.
    2. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    3. Shimizu, Chihiro, 2014. "How Are Property Investment Returns Determined? : Estimating the Micro-Structure of Asset Prices, Property Income, and Discount Rates," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 12, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cohen Viktorija & Burinskas Arūnas, 2020. "The Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Performance of Listed Real Estate Companies and Reits," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 99(1), pages 79-92, June.
    2. Muktar Babatunde Wahab & Wasiu Ayobami Durosinmi & Matthew Mamman & Dodo Usman Zakari & Adetoye Sulaiman Adepoju, 2021. "Macroeconomic Dynamics in Real Estate Market amid Covid-19 Pandemic in Abuja, Nigeria," AfRES 2021-002, African Real Estate Society (AfRES).
    3. Taderera, Marimo & Akinsomi, Omokolade, 2020. "Is commercial real estate a good hedge against inflation? Evidence from South Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Daniel Lo & Yung Yau & Michael McCord & Martin Haran, 2022. "Dynamics between Direct Industrial Real Estate and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Study of Hong Kong," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Kwabena Mintah & Woon-Weng Wong & Peng Yew Wong, 2020. "Cross Border Real Estate Investments and Commercial Office Property Market Performance: Evidence from Australia," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 23(2), pages 837-860.
    6. Kwabena Mintah & Woon-Weng Wong & Peng Yew Wong, 2020. "Cross Border Real Estate Investments and Commercial Office Property Market Performance: Evidence from Australia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 211-234.
    7. Kola Ijasan & Peterson Owusu Junior & George Tweneboah & Tunbosun Oyedokun & Anokye M. Adam, 2021. "Analysing the relationship between global REITs and exchange rates: Fresh evidence from frequency-based quantile regressions," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 58-91, September.
    8. Mustafa ŞİT, 2019. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments in Real Estate: Turkey Case," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(3), pages 789-795, 03-2019.
    9. Benjamin Kwakye & Chan Tze Haw, 2020. "Interplay of the Macroeconomy and Real Estate: Systematic Review of Literature," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 262-271.
    10. Shaun de Jager & Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Xolani Sibande, 2022. "Leaningagainstthewindwithfiscalandmonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11033, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roland Füss & Daniel Ruf, 2018. "Office Market Interconnectedness and Systemic Risk Exposure," Working Papers on Finance 1830, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. C.F. Sirmans & Elaine Worzala, 2003. "International Direct Real Estate Investment: A Review of the Literature," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1081-1114, May.
    3. Mansley, Nick & Tse, Tiffany Ching Man & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Risk classification of Asian real estate funds and their performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-261, November.
    5. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    6. Joël Vonlanthen, 2023. "Interest rates and real estate prices: a panel study," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Jack Corgel & Crocker Liu & Robert White, 2015. "Determinants of Hotel Property Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 415-439, October.
    8. De Santis, Paola & Drago, Carlo, 2014. "Asimmetria del rischio sistematico dei titoli immobiliari americani: nuove evidenze econometriche [Systematic Risk Asymmetry of the American Real Estate Securities: Some New Econometric Evidence]," MPRA Paper 59381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    10. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    11. Oikarinen, Elias, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    12. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2012. "The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks," NBP Working Papers 132, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. Neal Maroney & Atsuyuki Naka, 2006. "Diversification Benefits of Japanese Real Estate Over the Last Four Decades," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 259-274, November.
    14. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    15. Füss, Roland & Ruf, Daniel, 2021. "Bank systemic risk exposure and office market interconnectedness," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.
    17. Shaukat, Mughees, 2010. "The Benefits and Importance of Commercial Real Estate," MPRA Paper 28268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Benedetto Manganelli & Francesco Tajani, 2015. "Macroeconomic Variables and Real Estate in Italy and in the usa," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(3), pages 31-48.
    19. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    20. Andrew Baum & Claudia Murray, 2010. "Understanding the Barriers to Real Estate Investment in Developing Economies," LARES lares-2010-artigo-314-412, Latin American Real Estate Society (LARES).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:35:y:2018:i:1:p:28-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJPR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.