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Multivariate Seasonal Adjustment, Economic Identities, and Seasonal Taxonomy

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  • Tucker McElroy

Abstract

This article extends the methodology for multivariate seasonal adjustment by exploring the statistical modeling of seasonality jointly across multiple time series, using latent dynamic factor models fitted using maximum likelihood estimation. Signal extraction methods for the series then allow us to calculate a model-based seasonal adjustment. We emphasize several facets of our analysis: (i) we quantify the efficiency gain in multivariate signal extraction versus univariate approaches; (ii) we address the problem of the preservation of economic identities; (iii) we describe a foray into seasonal taxonomy via the device of seasonal co-integration rank. These contributions are developed through two empirical studies of aggregate U.S. retail trade series and U.S. regional housing starts. Our analysis identifies different seasonal subcomponents that are able to capture the transition from prerecession to postrecession seasonal patterns. We also address the topic of indirect seasonal adjustment by analyzing the regional aggregate series. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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  • Tucker McElroy, 2017. "Multivariate Seasonal Adjustment, Economic Identities, and Seasonal Taxonomy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 611-625, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:4:p:611-625
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2015.1123159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    2. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2013. "A Multivariate Approach to Seasonal Adjustment," BEA Working Papers 0100, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Webel, Karsten, 2022. "A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series," Discussion Papers 31/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Rishab Guha & Serena Ng, 2019. "A Machine Learning Analysis of Seasonal and Cyclical Sales in Weekly Scanner Data," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 403-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. McElroy, Tucker S. & Wildi, Marc, 2020. "The Multivariate Linear Prediction Problem: Model-Based and Direct Filtering Solutions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 112-130.
    4. Tucker S. McElroy & Anindya Roy, 2022. "Model identification via total Frobenius norm of multivariate spectra," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 473-495, April.
    5. Tucker McElroy, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment subject to accounting constraints," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 574-589, November.
    6. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Fogarty, Michael, 2022. "The perils of working with big data, and a SMALL checklist you can use to recognize them," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 481-492.

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