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The Current Account - Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon

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  • Marianna Belloc
  • Giancarlo Gandolfo

Abstract

The current account - interest rate relationship has been extensively investigated, but always assuming that it is linear. In this paper we examine the linearity versus nonlinearity issue with reference to this relationship in 11 OECD countries, and find overwhelming evidence in favour of nonlinearity. After testing alternative nonlinear specifications, we estimate a smooth transition regression model and a nonlinear VAR model. Finally, we provide a study of the innovation response analysis that shows adjustment behaviours of the two variables. The implications of the results are discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 145-166

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:2:p:145-166

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Related research

Keywords: Current account; real interest rate; nonlinearity; linearity testing; nonlinear modelling;

References

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  1. Baillie, Richard T., 1987. "Inference in dynamic models containing 'surprise' variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-117, May.
  2. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2003. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Stationarity Tests," Working Papers 485, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Bierens, Herman J., 1993. "Higher-order sample autocorrelations and the unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 137-160.
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Cited by:
  1. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2006. "Worker Remittances and Growth: The Physical and Human Capital Channels," MERIT Working Papers 020, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Chu, Kam Hon, 2012. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Spurious Ratio Correlation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 292-309.
  3. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2010. "The Impact of the Credit Crisis on Poor Developing Countries and the Role of China in Pulling and Crowding Us Out," MERIT Working Papers 004, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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