Forecasting interest rates: a comparative assessment of some second-generation nonlinear models
AbstractModeling and forecasting of interest rates has traditionally proceeded in the framework of linear stationary methods such as ARMA and VAR, but only with moderate success. We examine here three methods, which account for several specific features of the real world asset prices such as nonstationarity and nonlinearity. Our three candidate methods are based, respectively, on a combined wavelet artificial neural network (WANN) analysis, a mixed spectrum (MS) analysis and nonlinear ARMA models with Fourier coefficients (FNLARMA). These models are applied to weekly data on interest rates in India and their forecasting performance is evaluated vis-a-vis three GARCH models [GARCH (1,1), GARCH-M (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1)] as well as the random walk model. Both the WANN and MS methods show marked improvement over other benchmark models, and may thus hold out several potentials for real world modeling and forecasting of financial data.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.
Volume (Year): 35 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=100411
Other versions of this item:
- Dilip M. Nachane & Jose G. Clavel, 2005. "Forecasting interest rates: A Comparative assessment of some second generation non-linear model," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2005-009, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
- Dilip M. Nachane & Jose G. Clavel, 2005. "Forecasting Interest Rates - A Comparative Assessment Of Some Second Generation Non-Linear Models," Finance Working Papers 22359, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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