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Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

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  • Andrew M. Linke
  • Frank D. W. Witmer
  • John O'Loughlin

Abstract

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004--2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O'Loughlin, 2012. "Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 402-425, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:38:y:2012:i:4:p:402-425
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.696996
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arce, Daniel G., 2015. "WikiLeaks and the risks to critical foreign dependencies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 3-11.
    2. de Juan, Alexander, 2012. "Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict," GIGA Working Papers 211, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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