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The Endogenous And Non-Linear Relationship Between Terrorism And Economic Performance: Turkish Evidence

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Author Info

  • Bahar Araz-Takay
  • K. Peren Arin
  • Tolga Omay

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of terror by using a novel data set from Turkey for the period of 1987:1 to 2004:4. This research contributes to the literature by controlling for the possible non-linear and endogenous relationship between political conflict and economic activity. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on economic activity. Finally, the results from the non-linear model show that the impact of terrorism on the aggregate economy is more severe during expansionary periods, and that the impact of economic activity on terrorism is significant only in recessionary periods.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701775509
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-10

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:1-10

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Related research

Keywords: Terror; VAR;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 45, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Tolga Omay, 2011. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate GARCH-M evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3006-3015.
  3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
  4. Firat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2013. "“The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey”," IREA Working Papers 201322, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2013.
  5. Omay, Tolga & Takay Araz, Bahar & Ilalan, Deniz, 2011. "The effects of terrorist activities on foreign direct investment: nonlinear Evidence," MPRA Paper 31015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Muhammad, Nasir Malik & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 35101, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.

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