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A capital adequacy buffer model

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  • D. E. Allen
  • M. McAleer
  • R. J. Powell
  • A. K. Singh

Abstract

We develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) that is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model, which measures distance to default and the timeless capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which measures additional returns to compensate for additional share price risk. We apply the model to a portfolio of mid-cap loan assets over a 10-year period that includes pre-GFC (global financial crisis), GFC and post-GFC. An analysis of actual defaults over this period shows the model to be far more accurate in determining the capital adequacy levels needed to counter credit risk than an unresponsive ratings model such as the Basel standardized approach.

Suggested Citation

  • D. E. Allen & M. McAleer & R. J. Powell & A. K. Singh, 2016. "A capital adequacy buffer model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 175-179, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:175-179
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1061639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bucher, Monika & Dietrich, Diemo & Hauck, Achim, 2013. "Business cycles, bank credit and crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 229-231.
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    3. Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-to-Default in Banking: A Bridge Too Far?," IMF Working Papers 2006/215, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kretzschmar, Gavin & McNeil, Alexander J. & Kirchner, Axel, 2010. "Integrated models of capital adequacy - Why banks are undercapitalised," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2838-2850, December.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    6. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, April.
    7. Ms. Yingbin Xiao & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 2004/121, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Powell & Duc H. Vo & Thach N. Pham, 2018. "Economic cycles and downside commodities risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 258-263, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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