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Integrated models of capital adequacy - Why banks are undercapitalised

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  • Kretzschmar, Gavin
  • McNeil, Alexander J.
  • Kirchner, Axel
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    Abstract

    With the majority of large UK and many US banks collapsing or being forced to raise capital over the 2007-9 period, blaming bankers may be satisfying but is patently insufficient; Basel II and Federal oversight frameworks also deserve criticism. We propose that the current methodological void at the heart of Basel II, Pillar 2 is filled with the recommendation that banks develop fully-integrated models for economic capital that relate asset values to fundamental drivers of risk in the economy to capture systematic effects and inter-asset dependencies in a way that crude correlation assumptions do not. We implement a fully-integrated risk analysis based on the balance sheet of a composite European bank using an economic-scenario generation model calibrated to conditions at the end of 2007. Our results suggest that the more modular, correlation-based approaches to economic capital that currently dominate practice could have led to an undercapitalisation of banks, a result that is clearly of interest given subsequent events. The introduction of integrated economic-scenario-based models in future can improve capital adequacy, enhance Pillar 2's application and rejuvenate the relevance of the Basel regulatory framework.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 12 (December)
    Pages: 2838-2850

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2838-2850

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Risk management Economic capital Enterprise risk management Basel II Solvency II Stochastic models Stress testing;

    References

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    1. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Til Schuermann, 2004. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Staff Reports 185, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
    3. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Drehmann, Mathias, 2010. "An economic capital model integrating credit and interest rate risk in the banking book," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 730-742, April.
    4. Dirk Tasche, 2007. "Capital Allocation to Business Units and Sub-Portfolios: the Euler Principle," Papers 0708.2542, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2008.
    5. Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Expected Shortfall and Beyond," Papers cond-mat/0203558, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2002.
    6. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
    7. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    8. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2010. "Does adding up of economic capital for market- and credit risk amount to conservative risk assessment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 703-712, April.
    9. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    10. Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Guidara, Alaa & Lai, Van Son & Soumaré, Issouf & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert, 2013. "Banks’ Capital Buffer, Risk and Performance in the Canadian Banking System: Impact of Business Cycles and Regulatory Changes," MPRA Paper 44105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bellini, Tiziano, 2013. "Integrated bank risk modeling: A bottom-up statistical framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 385-398.
    3. Allen, D.E. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2013. "A Capital Adequacy Buffer Model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. McNeil, Alexander J. & Smith, Andrew D., 2012. "Multivariate stress scenarios and solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 299-308.

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