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Do interest rates predict real economic activity?

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Author Info
John Loizides
George A. Vamvoukas

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Abstract

This paper employs a structural VAR procedure to test some fundamental propositions of the business cycle using a developing economy framework. The focus of the paper is on KBC, MBC and RBC theories as well as on the alternative view, which has been propagated mainly by Sims. The empirical analysis intends to report extensive evidence on the dynamics between money, output, interest rates and prices. The results suggest that the effects of system shocks conform to the alternative view supporting the central role of interest rates. Interest rate shocks explain a majority of the variation in money, output and prices. The results are generally robust across different orderings, alternative interest rate measures and various sample periods.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 9 (July)
Pages: 589-595
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:9:p:589-595

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  2. Panicos O. Demetriades & Khaled A.Hussein, 1995. "Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 95/13, Department of Economics, Keele University.
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  3. Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "Financial Innovation, Inflation and the Stability of the Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 225-33, July.
  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Panicos O. Demetriades & Philip Arestis, 1996. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 96/16, Department of Economics, Keele University.
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  8. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cook, David, 1999. "The liquidity effect and money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 377-390, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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