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Assessing the predictability of different kinds of models in estimating impacts of climatic factors on food grain availability in India

Author

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  • Manojit Chattopadhyay

    (Indian Institute of Management Raipur)

  • Subrata Kumar Mitra

    (Indian Institute of Management Raipur)

Abstract

The study explored the relationship of the climatic predictor variables such as seasonal temperature and rainfall pattern and non-climatic variable such as area under cultivation with the predictand per capita food grain production. We applied a linear method “Generalized Linear Model” and two non-linear methods “Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline” and “Generalized Additive Model” to Indian data and assessed the data on basis of their performance in predicting food grain production. It was found that an adaptive version of generalized additive model has yielded the lowest predictive error in terms of lower root mean squared error. Better predictability of food grain production based on climatic factors may necessarily help to anticipate the nation’s food grain availability. The forecasts would facilitate scientists, farmers, policy makers, business organizations and the government to formulate appropriate adaptable strategies to cope with the climatic variability influence on food availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Manojit Chattopadhyay & Subrata Kumar Mitra, 2018. "Assessing the predictability of different kinds of models in estimating impacts of climatic factors on food grain availability in India," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 55(1), pages 50-64, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:opsear:v:55:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s12597-017-0314-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12597-017-0314-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
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