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Correlations between air pollutant emission, logistic services, GDP, and urban population growth from vector autoregressive modeling: a case study of Beijing

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaopeng Guo

    (North China Electric Power University
    North China Electric Power University)

  • Jiaxing Shi

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Dongfang Ren

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Jing Ren

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Qilin Liu

    (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract

Logistics in China has grown rapidly; in 2015, the freight volume has reached 41 billion ton, increasing by 4.4% year-on-year. At the same time, the pollutant emissions from freight cars account for 70% of total emissions of motor vehicles, which severely affected the air quality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics on air pollution; we used a new methodology based on vector autoregression of freight turnover, gross domestic product, and urban population. We selected Beijing as our test and created a model using time series data for the period 2000–2014. In this model, permanent residents, freight turnover, and SO2 emission were used as proxies for population size, logistic services, and degree of air pollution. Our analyses showed that the expansion of logistic services had the biggest effect on air pollution. Moreover, impulse response analysis revealed that logistic growth caused more serious air pollution over a short time, with an ongoing negative effect. GDP growth was only weakly correlated with air pollution, while urban population growth appeared to have little effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaopeng Guo & Jiaxing Shi & Dongfang Ren & Jing Ren & Qilin Liu, 2017. "Correlations between air pollutant emission, logistic services, GDP, and urban population growth from vector autoregressive modeling: a case study of Beijing," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 885-897, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2799-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2799-1
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    3. Xiaoyang Xu & Yufan Xie & Emma Serwaa Obobisa & Huaping Sun, 2023. "Has the establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones improved air quality? Evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Haoran Zhao & Sen Guo & Huiru Zhao, 2018. "Characterizing the Influences of Economic Development, Energy Consumption, Urbanization, Industrialization, and Vehicles Amount on PM 2.5 Concentrations of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Ruiling Sun & Yi Zhou & Jie Wu & Zaiwu Gong, 2019. "Influencing Factors of PM 2.5 Pollution: Disaster Points of Meteorological Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-31, October.
    6. Chong Ye & Jiawei Pi & Hanqi Chen, 2022. "Coupling Coordination Development of the Logistics Industry, New Urbanization and the Ecological Environment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.

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