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Fooled by facts: quantifying anchoring bias through a large-scale experiment

Author

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  • Taha Yasseri

    (University College Dublin
    Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin
    Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford
    Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and AI)

  • Jannie Reher

    (Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford)

Abstract

Through a large-scale online field experiment, we provide new empirical evidence for the presence of the anchoring bias in people’s judgement due to irrational reliance on a piece of information that they are initially given. The comparison of the anchoring stimuli and respective responses across different tasks reveals a positive, yet complex relationship between the anchors and the bias in participants’ predictions of the outcomes of events in the future. Participants in the treatment group were equally susceptible to the anchors regardless of their level of engagement, previous performance, or gender. Given the strong and ubiquitous influence of anchors quantified here, we should take great care to closely monitor and regulate the distribution of information online to facilitate less biased decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Taha Yasseri & Jannie Reher, 2022. "Fooled by facts: quantifying anchoring bias through a large-scale experiment," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1001-1021, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:5:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-021-00158-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s42001-021-00158-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    2. Northcraft, Gregory B. & Neale, Margaret A., 1987. "Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 84-97, February.
    3. Furnham, Adrian & Boo, Hua Chu, 2011. "A literature review of the anchoring effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-42, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahník, Štěpán & Yoon, Sangsuk, 2023. "Anchoring effect in business," OSF Preprints 98qdv, Center for Open Science.

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