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Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Heiland

    (Florida State University)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Vienna Institute of Demography)

  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (International Institute of Applied System Analysis
    State University of New York at Stony Brook
    State University of New York at Stony Brook)

Abstract

Using West German panel data constructed from the 1988 and 1994/1995 wave of the DJI Familiensurvey, we analyze the stability and determinants of individuals’ total desired fertility. We find considerable variation of total desired fertility across respondents and across interviews. In particular, up to 50% of individuals report a different total desired fertility across survey waves. Multivariate analysis confirms the importance of background factors including growing up with both parents, having more siblings, and being Catholic for preference formation. Consistent with the idea that life course experiences provide new information regarding the expected costs and benefits of different family sizes, the influence of background factors on total desired fertility is strong early in life and weakens as subsequent life course experiences, including childbearing, take effect. Accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we estimate that an additional child may increase the total desired fertility of women with children by 0.14 children, less than what conventional estimates from cross-sectional data would have suggested.

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  • Frank Heiland & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2008. "Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 129-156, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:24:y:2008:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-008-9162-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-008-9162-x
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