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The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value

Author

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  • Dirk G. Baur

    (University of Western Australia, Business School)

  • Thomas Dimpfl

    (University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

Bitcoin is designed as a peer-to-peer cash system. To work as a currency, it must be stable or be backed by a government. In this paper, we show that the volatility of Bitcoin prices is extreme and almost 10 times higher than the volatility of major exchange rates (US dollar against the euro and the yen). The excess volatility even adversely affects its potential role in portfolios. Our analysis implies that Bitcoin cannot function as a medium of exchange and has only limited use as a risk-diversifier. In contrast, we use the deflationary design of Bitcoin as a theoretical basis and demonstrate that Bitcoin displays store of value characteristics over long horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2021. "The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2663-2683, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01990-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-01990-5
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    5. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Zeitun, Rami & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Conditional dependence structure and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and fiat currencies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Tak Kuen Siu, 2023. "Bayesian nonlinear expectation for time series modelling and its application to Bitcoin," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 505-537, January.
    7. A. H. Nzokem, 2023. "Bitcoin versus S&P 500 Index: Return and Risk Analysis," Papers 2310.02436, arXiv.org.
    8. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2023. "The illusion of the metaverse and meta-economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Zhang, Dingxuan & Sun, Yuying & Duan, Hongbo & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Speculation or currency? Multi-scale analysis of cryptocurrencies—The case of Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Sasan Barak & Navid Parvini, 2023. "Transfer‐entropy‐based dynamic feature selection for evaluating Bitcoin price drivers," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1695-1726, December.
    11. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2023. "Will Bitcoin ever become less volatile?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Lei Wang & Provash Kumer Sarker & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Short- and Long-Term Interactions Between Bitcoin and Economic Variables: Evidence from the US," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1305-1330, April.
    13. Andreas Thiemann, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies: An empirical view from a Tax Perspective," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-12, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Graf von Luckner, Clemens & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2023. "Decrypting new age international capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 104-122.
    15. Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2022. "Cryptocurrency market connectedness in Covid-19 days and the role of Twitter: Evidence from a smooth transition regression model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Gabriel Mathy, 2023. "Eliminating Environmental Costs to Proof-of-Work-Based Cryptocurrencies: A Proposal," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 206-220, April.
    17. Junwei Chen, 2023. "Analysis of Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Ahmed BenSaïda, 2023. "The linkage between Bitcoin and foreign exchanges in developed and emerging markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    19. Lyons, Richard K. & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2023. "What keeps stablecoins stable?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Haritha GB & Sahana N. B, 2023. "Cryptocurrency Price Prediction using Twitter Sentiment Analysis," Papers 2303.09397, arXiv.org.
    21. Yu Song & Bo Chen & Xin-Yi Wang, 2023. "Cryptocurrency technology revolution: are Bitcoin prices and terrorist attacks related?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    22. Ajithakumari Vijayappan Nair Biju & Ann Susan Thomas, 2023. "Uncertainties and ambivalence in the crypto market: an urgent need for a regional crypto regulation," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-21, August.
    23. Nadir Khan & Muhammad Zohair Durrani & Naila Mushtaq & S M Nabeel ul Haq & Babar Ijaz, 2022. "The Relationships among Cryptocurrencies: A Granger Causality Analysis," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 4(2), pages 264-274, June.
    24. Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    25. Nguyen, Thach V.H. & Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Pham, Thu Thi Anh & Nguyen, Quan M.P., 2022. "Stablecoins versus traditional cryptocurrencies in response to interbank rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Digital currency; Medium of exchange; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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