IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v54y2018i3d10.1007_s00181-017-1241-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does international tourism affect international trade and economic growth? The Indian experience

Author

Listed:
  • K. G. Suresh

    (IFHE University)

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (Montpellier Business School)

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate the relationship between international tourism, trade, and economic growth in India over the period from April 1991 to July 2012. To account for potential asymmetries in the relationship, we make use of new asymmetric Granger-causality tests and frequency analysis. We show that there is bidirectional Granger-causality between trade and tourism in positive components, whereas unidirectional Granger-causality runs from tourism to trade for negative components. Moreover, we find evidence of bidirectional Granger-causality between economic growth and tourism in positive components, but unidirectional Granger-causality running from economic growth to tourism for negative components. On the other hand, the results from frequency analysis provide evidence of Granger-causality between trade and tourism, and also between economic growth and tourism, at different frequency bands.

Suggested Citation

  • K. G. Suresh & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Does international tourism affect international trade and economic growth? The Indian experience," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 945-957, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1241-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1241-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-017-1241-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-017-1241-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. A. Hatemi-J, 2003. "A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 135-137.
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    4. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 750-777.
    5. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    6. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Reconsidering the macroeconomics of the oil price in Germany: testing for causality in the frequency domain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 441-453, May.
    7. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 241-247.
    8. T. Easton, Stephen, 1998. "Is Tourism Just Another Commodity? Links between Commodity Trade and Tourism," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 522-543.
    9. Josaphat Kweka & Oliver Morrissey & Adam Blake, 2003. "The economic potential of tourism in Tanzania," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 335-351.
    10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    12. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    13. Denise Fry & Andrea Saayman & Melville Saayman, 2010. "The Relationship Between Tourism And Trade In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(3), pages 287-306, September.
    14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    15. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    16. Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
    17. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
    18. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    19. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    20. N. Kulendran & Kenneth Wilson, 2000. "Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1001-1009.
    21. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
    22. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2008. "Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 414-431.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shekhar Mishra & Avik Sinha & Arshian Sharif & Norazah Mohd Suki, 2020. "Dynamic linkages between tourism, transportation, growth and carbon emission in the USA: evidence from partial and multiple wavelet coherence," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(21), pages 2733-2755, November.
    2. Odhiambo, Nicholas M & Saungweme, Talknice, 2021. "Does international tourism spur international trade in SSA countries? A dynamic panel data analysis," Working Papers 28345, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    3. Portella-Carbó, Ferran & Pérez-Montiel, Jose & Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2023. "Tourism-led economic growth across the business cycle: Evidence from Europe (1995–2021)," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1241-1253.
    4. Mukesh Kumar & Sanjeev Prashar & RK Jana, 2019. "Does international tourism spur international trade and output? Evidence from wavelet analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 22-33, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Camgöz, Mevlüt & Topal, Mehmet Hanefi, 2022. "Identifying the asymmetric price dynamics of Islamic equities: Implications for international investors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1571-1578.
    3. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    5. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-441 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Asymmetric Panel Causality Tests with an Application to the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Performance in Scandinavia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 389-404.
    8. Sarmiento, Julio & Cayon, Edgardo & Collazos, María & Sandoval, Juan S., 2017. "Positive asymmetric information in volatile environments: The black market dollar and sovereign bond yields in Venezuela," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 547-555.
    9. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    10. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid, 2016. "Asymmetric causality using frequency domain and time-frequency domain (wavelet) approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 66-78.
    12. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Youssef El-Khatib, 2016. "An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4033-4041, September.
    13. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo, 2023. "Dynamic Asymmetric Causality of Bitcoin’s Price-Volume Relation," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    15. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    16. Xiaojuan He & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Melike Torun & Zecheng Li, 2021. "Modeling Economic Risk in the QISMUT Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear Cointegration Tests," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    17. B. Faye & E. Le Fur & S. Prat, 2015. "Dynamics of fine wine and asset prices: evidence from short- and long-run co-movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3059-3077, June.
    18. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Mbazima, Daisy, 2008. "The Causal Relationship Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in Namibia," MPRA Paper 9154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2011. "Tourism and Trade in Small Island Regions: The Case of the Canary Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 107-125, February.
    20. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Tourism; Economic growth; Asymmetric causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1241-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.