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The analyses on the economic costs for achieving the nationally determined contributions and the expected global emission pathways

Author

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  • Keigo Akimoto

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Bianka Shoai Tehrani

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement for a post-2020 international framework for tackling climate change was adopted in December 2015. The agreement requires that each country prepares and communicates nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every 5 years, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. Most countries submitted NDCs before the Paris Agreement. According to our analyses using a global energy and GHG emission reduction assessment model, the emission reduction costs of the NDCs vary widely among countries; and those differences will induce carbon leakage, thus the expected global emission reduction is smaller than that predicted by simply aggregating the emission reductions of all the countries. Moreover, the emissions are larger than those required for the pathways leading to a high probability of temperature stabilization at below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. To fill the gap, a rigorous review process employing robust indicators measuring emission reduction efforts is crucial. However, the development and deployment of innovative technologies with cheaper costs is even more significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Bianka Shoai Tehrani, 2017. "The analyses on the economic costs for achieving the nationally determined contributions and the expected global emission pathways," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 193-206, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eaiere:v:14:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s40844-016-0049-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s40844-016-0049-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Piris-Cabezas, Pedro & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Leslie, Gabriela, 2023. "Estimating the potential of international carbon markets to increase global climate ambition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Thube, Sneha D. & Delzeit, Ruth & Henning, Christian H.C.A., 2022. "Economic gains from global cooperation in fulfilling climate pledges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Yosuke Arino & Fuminori Sano & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Future Fossil Fuel Price Impacts on NDC Achievement; Estimation of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Costs," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 16-35.
    5. Böhringer, Christoph & Peterson, Sonja & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Schneider, Jan & Winkler, Malte, 2021. "Climate policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Liu, Weifeng & McKibbin, Warwick J. & Morris, Adele C. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2020. "Global economic and environmental outcomes of the Paris Agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Christoph Boehringer & Sonja Peterson & Thomas F. Rutherford & Jan Schneider & Malte Winkler, 2021. "Climate Policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle Insights from the 36th Energy Modeling Forum Study (EMF36)," Working Papers V-434-21, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised May 2021.
    8. Böhringer, Christoph & Peterson, Sonja & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Schneider, Jan & Winkler, Malte, 2021. "Climate policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Isabella Alloisio & Simone Borghesi & Francesco Nicolli, 2022. "Increasing the ambition of the EU Nationally Determined Contribution: lessons from a survey of experts and students," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(2), pages 517-542, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change mitigation; Greenhouse gas emission; Marginal abatement cost; Nationally determined contributions; Emission pathway;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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