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Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections

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  • Fanny Janssen

    ()

  • Leo Wissen

    ()

  • Anton Kunst

    ()

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    Abstract

    We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0 ) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970–2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality. Copyright Population Association of America 2013

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Demography.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 (August)
    Pages: 1341-1362

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:50:y:2013:i:4:p:1341-1362

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    Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13524

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    Related research

    Keywords: Life expectancy; Projection; Smoking; Europe; Li-Lee methodology;

    References

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    1. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & L.J.G van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354, August.

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