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Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline in seven European countries, 1950–1999: the role of smoking and other factors earlier in life

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  • Fanny Janssen

    (University of Groningen)

  • Anton Kunst

    (Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam)

  • Johan Mackenbach

    (Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam)

Abstract

We examine the variations in the pace of old-age (80+) mortality decline in seven European countries, from 1950 to 1999. Marked variations were found between countries, periods and sexes. While mortality declines were strong in France and England and Wales, modest or no mortality declines were seen in the 1950s and 1960s in the Nordic countries, and since the 1980s in Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway (men only). For non-smoking-related mortality, a high and consistent pace of mortality decline was observed. Mortality decline stagnated among men born between 1890 and 1899, but persisted among women born between 1847 and 1937. The pace of old-age mortality decline correlated with the pace of mortality decline at ages 60–69 among the same cohorts, but only among men and not for non-smoking-related mortality. Smoking, thus, seems more important than other factors originating earlier in life. Our results furthermore indicate substantial future declines in old-age mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanny Janssen & Anton Kunst & Johan Mackenbach, 2007. "Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline in seven European countries, 1950–1999: the role of smoking and other factors earlier in life," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 171-188, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:23:y:2007:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-007-9119-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-007-9119-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Rostron & John Wilmoth, 2011. "Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(2), pages 461-479, May.
    2. L. Daniel Staetsky, 2009. "Diverging trends in female old-age mortality: A reappraisal," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(30), pages 885-914.
    3. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
    4. Fanny Janssen & Alette Spriensma, 2012. "The contribution of smoking to regional mortality differences in the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(9), pages 233-260.
    5. W. Heeringa & A. Bovenberg, 2012. "Generational Impacts of Demographic Changes in Pay-as-you-go Pension Schemes: Measurement and Application to the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Danan Gu & Patrick Gerland & Kirill F. Andreev & Nan Li & Thomas Spoorenberg & Gerhard Heilig, 2013. "Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(38), pages 999-1038.
    7. Fanny Janssen & Leo Wissen & Anton Kunst, 2013. "Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1341-1362, August.

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