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Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Hannes Böttcher

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Mykola Gusti

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Lviv Polytechnic National University)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Ger Klaassen

    (European Commission)

  • Georg Kindermann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Frank & Hannes Böttcher & Mykola Gusti & Petr Havlík & Ger Klaassen & Georg Kindermann & Michael Obersteiner, 2016. "Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 253-266, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1729-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Marcus Lindner & Pieter J. Verkerk & Katja Gunia & Paola Deda & Roman Michalak & Giacomo Grassi, 2013. "First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 792-796, September.
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