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Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Garner

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Patrick Reed

    (Cornell University)

  • Klaus Keller

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    The Pennsylvania State University
    Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Strategies for managing climate-change risks impact diverse stakeholder groups that possess potentially conflicting preferences. Basic physics and economics suggest that reconciling all of these preference conflicts may not be possible. Moreover, different climate risk management strategies can yield diverse and potentially severe impacts across different global stakeholders. These preference conflicts and their uncertain impacts require an explicit understanding of the trade-offs that emerge across different risk management strategies. Traditionally, integrated assessment models (IAMs) typically aggregate the stakeholders’ preferences across the entire globe into a single, a priori defined utility function. This framing hides climate risk management trade-offs as well as the inherent stakeholder compromises implicit to the resulting single “optimal” expected utility solution. Here, we analyze a simple IAM to quantify and visualize the multidimensional trade-offs among four objectives representing global concerns: (i) global economic productivity, (ii) reliable temperature stabilization, (iii) climate damages, and (iv) abatement costs. We quantify and visualize the trade-offs across these objectives and demonstrate how a traditional optimal expected utility policy implicitly eliminates many relevant policy pathways. Explicit trade-off analysis provides a richer context for exploring conflicting global policy preferences and clarifies the implications of alternative climate risk mitigation policies to better inform negotiated compromises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Garner & Patrick Reed & Klaus Keller, 2016. "Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 713-723, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1607-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1607-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Tony E Wong & Vivek Srikrishnan & David Hadka & Klaus Keller, 2017. "A multi-objective decision-making approach to the journal submission problem," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Perry C. Oddo & Ben S. Lee & Gregory G. Garner & Vivek Srikrishnan & Patrick M. Reed & Chris E. Forest & Klaus Keller, 2020. "Deep Uncertainties in Sea‐Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 153-168, January.
    6. Giacomo Marangoni & Jonathan R. Lamontagne & Julianne D. Quinn & Patrick M. Reed & Klaus Keller, 2021. "Adaptive mitigation strategies hedge against extreme climate futures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Julie E. Shortridge & Benjamin F. Zaitchik, 2018. "Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 525-539, December.
    8. Oschlies, Andreas & Held, Hermann & Keller, David & Keller, Klaus & Mengis, Nadine & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Schmidt, Hauke, 2017. "Indicators and Metrics for the Assessment of Climate Engineering," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 226354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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