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Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach

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  • Belal Fallah
  • Mark Partridge
  • M. Olfert

Abstract

This paper examines how the volatility of local economies, represented by uncertainty over future land rents, affects urban sprawl. We develop a theoretic model that links sprawl to shocks to expected rent from future land development, among other factors. The econometric analysis draws upon panel data from US metropolitan areas. To measure urban sprawl, we construct a distinctive measure that captures the distribution of population density within metropolitan areas. Using a proxy for uncertainty over future land rents, we confirm the theoretic prediction that across US metropolitan areas, higher levels of uncertainty are associated with lower levels of sprawl. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

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  • Belal Fallah & Mark Partridge & M. Olfert, 2012. "Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-617, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:49:y:2012:i:3:p:589-617
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    R11; R12; R58;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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