IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v219y2014i1p49-6210.1007-s10479-010-0774-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new decision support framework for managing foot-and-mouth disease epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Lan Ge
  • Anders Kristensen
  • Monique Mourits
  • Ruud Huirne

Abstract

Animal disease epidemics such as the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pose recurrent threat to countries with intensive livestock production. Efficient FMD control is crucial in limiting the damage of FMD epidemics and securing food production. Decision making in FMD control involves a hierarchy of decisions made at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. These decisions are interdependent and have to be made under uncertainty about future development of the epidemic. Addressing this decision problem, this paper presents a new decision-support framework based on multi-level hierarchic Markov processes (MLHMP). The MLHMP model simultaneously optimizes decisions at strategic, tactical, and operational levels, using Bayesian forecasting methods to model uncertainty and learning about the epidemic. As illustrated by the example, the framework is especially useful in contingency planning for future FMD epidemics. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Lan Ge & Anders Kristensen & Monique Mourits & Ruud Huirne, 2014. "A new decision support framework for managing foot-and-mouth disease epidemics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 49-62, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:219:y:2014:i:1:p:49-62:10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard, 1993. "Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(2), pages 223-239.
    2. Anders Kristensen & Erik Jørgensen, 2000. "Multi‐level hierarchic Markov processes as a framework for herd management support," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 69-89, January.
    3. Ronald Meester & Jan Koning & Mart C. M. Jong & Odo Diekmann, 2002. "Modeling and Real-Time Prediction of Classical Swine Fever Epidemics," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 178-184, March.
    4. Olivier Mahul & Bernard Durand, 2000. "Simulated economic consequences of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics and their public control in France," Post-Print hal-01952105, HAL.
    5. Philip L. Paarlberg & John G. Lee, 1998. "Import Restrictions in the Presence of a Health Risk: An Illustration Using FMD," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 175-183.
    6. Toft, Nils & Kristensen, Anders R. & Jorgensen, Erik, 2005. "A framework for decision support related to infectious diseases in slaughter pig fattening units," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 120-137, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stygar, Anna H. & Niemi, Jarkko K. & Oliviero, Claudio & Laurila, Tapio & Heinonen, Mari, 2016. "Economic value of mitigating Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae infections in pig fattening herds," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 113-121.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lars Relund Nielsen & Erik Jørgensen & Søren Højsgaard, 2011. "Embedding a state space model into a Markov decision process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 289-309, October.
    2. Erik Jørgensen & Anders Kristensen & Dennis Nilsson, 2014. "Markov Limid processes for representing and solving renewal problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 63-84, August.
    3. Reza Pourmoayed & Lars Relund Nielsen, 2022. "Optimizing pig marketing decisions under price fluctuations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 314(2), pages 617-644, July.
    4. Hegrenes, Agnar & Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2003. "Optimal Economic Length Of Leys: A Dynamic Programming Approach," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25848, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Pourmoayed, Reza & Nielsen, Lars Relund & Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard, 2016. "A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 925-938.
    6. Lawley, Chad, 2008. "Non-indigenous Species and Preemptive Trade Policy," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6111, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Calvin, Linda & Krissoff, Barry, 1998. "Technical Barriers To Trade: A Case Study Of Phytosanitary Barriers And U.S. - Japanese Apple Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 98-115, April.
    9. Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D., 2011. "Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behavior," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    10. M. Mahdi Ghodsi, 2013. "Welfare Analysis of a Prohibitive NTM in a Society with a Proportion of Concerned Consumers," Working Papers 2013-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    11. Demeter, Robert Milan & Bovenhuis, Henk & Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Meuwissen, Miranda P.M. & van Arendonk, Johan A.M., 2011. "Farm Level Economic Implications of Genetic Selection for Improving Milk Fat Composition," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114444, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Arens, Ludwig & Thulke, Hans-Hermann & Eisinger, Dirk & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2012. "Administrative cooperation and disease control in cross-border pork production," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 473-482.
    13. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2005. "Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    14. Levan Elbakidze & Linda Highfield & Michael Ward & Bruce A. McCarl & Bo Norby, 2009. "Economics Analysis of Mitigation Strategies for FMD Introduction in Highly Concentrated Animal Feeding Regions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 931-950.
    15. Gordhan K. Saini, 2009. "Non-Tariff Measures and Indian Textiles and Clothing Exports," Trade Working Papers 22407, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Olson, Lars J. & Roy, Santanu, 2010. "Dynamic sanitary and phytosanitary trade policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 21-30, July.
    17. I. Rahimov, 2019. "Estimation of the mean in partially observed branching processes with general immigration," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 143-155, April.
    18. Tu, Anh Thuy & Beghin, John & Gozlan, Estelle, 2008. "Tariff escalation and invasive species damages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 619-629, November.
    19. Anh Tu & John C. Beghin & Estelle Gozlan, 2005. "Tariff Escalation and Invasive Species Risk," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 05-wp407, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    20. Rahimov, I., 2017. "Asymptotic inference for non-supercritical partially observed branching processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 26-32.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:219:y:2014:i:1:p:49-62:10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.